Game Recap: DET 3, SJS 2 (SO), November 2, 2025

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Game Recap

DET3

Final/SOSun, Nov 2, 2025Every game that night

SJS2

DET beat SJS 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 2.84 expected goals to 1.29. DET outshot SJS 32 to 18. C. Talbot stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DET	0	1	1	1	3
SJS	0	0	2	0	2

2nd 18:05DETL. Raymond0.06 xG
3rd 0:49SJSJ. Skinner0.09 xG
3rd 10:16DETM. Seider0.02 xG
3rd 16:55SJSS. Dickinson0.17 xG

Team Stats

DETSJS

32Shots on goal18

2.84Expected goals1.29

69Shot attempts49

245v5 shots on goal14

0/2Power play0/2

16Hits16

17Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes4

21Giveaways15

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.84 xGSJS 1.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET31 on goal, 2 scored

SJS18 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	24:07	1:57
L. Raymond	LW	1	0	1	4	0	3	+1	0	20:06	2:03
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	16:29	1:57
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	19:46	1:54
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	17:12	0:51
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	16:27	0:10
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	14:42	0:57
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	14:32	1:50
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:11	1:55
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:03	0:07
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	10:34	0:08
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:52	1:54
M. Seider	D	1	0	1	4	4	2	0	4	25:00	2:02
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	23:39	0:17
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:10	1:58
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	21:59	0:00
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	17:29	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	18	16	2	.889	64:52	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	21:21	2:53
P. Kurashev	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	2	16:39	2:11
J. Skinner	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:44	1:07
P. Giles	RW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	8:20	0:00
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	26:15	3:05
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	24:11	1:19
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:43	2:56
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	16:09	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:13	0:14
E. Cardwell	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:05	1:04
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:08	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	18:58	1:10
S. Dickinson	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	16:23	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	21:54	2:50
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	21:25	1:11
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:48	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:11	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	11:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	32	30	2	.938	65:00	OT loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1D. Larkin18:26E. Finnie15:57L. Raymond15:48

Line 2M. Appleton15:09A. DeBrincat13:09M. Kasper11:09

Line 3J. Compher13:03J. Berggren12:16A. Copp11:12

Line 4M. Rasmussen10:08E. Soderblom10:26J. Riemsdyk7:58

Pair 1M. Seider19:37S. Edvinsson21:32

Pair 2T. Hamonic16:23A. Johansson18:59

Pair 3B. Chiarot15:08A. Sandin-Pellikka13:00

SJS

Line 1T. Toffoli15:38W. Smith16:02M. Celebrini20:06

Line 2J. Skinner13:29A. Wennberg18:33P. Kurashev12:30

Line 3E. Cardwell13:09C. Graf13:15T. Dellandrea14:27

Line 4B. Goodrow10:08P. Giles8:20

Pair 1D. Orlov16:10T. Liljegren16:18

Pair 2J. Klingberg17:58M. Ferraro14:20

Pair 3S. Dickinson14:05V. Desharnais9:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.8, SJS 2.8	DET 3, SJS 2
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	DET 30.1, SJS 26.1	DET 32, SJS 18
Win chance	DET 65%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.3	1	0.98	0	30%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.2	4	0.97	1	34%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.0	4	1.17	1	38%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	3.0	1	0.77	0	33%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	4	0.99	1	29%	1
DET E. Finnie	2.2	2	0.80	0	26%	0
DET M. Seider	2.2	4	0.67	1	11%	1
SJS W. Smith	2.1	1	0.79	1	26%	0
DET M. Kasper	2.1	4	0.58	0	25%	0
SJS J. Skinner	2.0	1	0.52	1	24%	1
SJS D. Orlov	1.8	1	0.51	1	10%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.7	3	0.56	1	19%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.6	0	0.51	0	10%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.4	1	0.54	0	19%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.4	0	0.27	0	8%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.4	0	0.45	0	19%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.4	2	0.41	0	14%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.3	0	0.41	0	17%	0
DET A. Copp	1.3	0	0.50	0	17%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	3	0.53	0	19%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.3	0	0.31	0	7%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.3	1	0.26	1	6%	0
DET T. Hamonic	1.3	0	0.20	0	5%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	1	0.44	1	12%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	0	0.36	0	15%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	0	0.50	0	16%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.25	0	5%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.1	2	0.34	0	5%	0
SJS P. Giles	1.0	0	0.14	1	10%	0
SJS E. Cardwell	1.0	1	0.25	0	13%	0
DET A. Johansson	1.0	2	0.20	0	5%	0
SJS C. Graf	0.9	1	0.26	0	12%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	0.9	3	0.12	1	4%	1
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	0	0.21	0	7%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.16	0	9%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	1	0.11	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.