STL beat DET 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.40 expected goals to 2.98. STL outshot DET 37 to 21. C. Fowler led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Kyrou had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Binnington stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 3rd 5:13DETJ. Compher0.52 xG
- 3rd 19:31STLJ. Kyrou0.18 xG
- OT 3:27STLC. Fowler0.14 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.98 xGSTL 3.40 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:16 | 2:52 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:59 | 2:31 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:17 | 1:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:48 | 3:27 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:33 | 3:23 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 | 2:37 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:15 | 3:06 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 3:23 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 | 1:31 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:02 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:51 | 0:02 |
| A. Watson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 27:38 | 3:38 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:29 | 2:25 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:53 | 0:02 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:28 | 0:01 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:40 | 3:09 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:25 | 2:54 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:20 | 2:55 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:00 | 2:33 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:32 | 3:03 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:39 | 3:20 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:27 | 1:15 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:56 | 2:58 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:43 | 1:49 |
| C. Fowler | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:43 | 3:18 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:49 | 2:40 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:06 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 60:33 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.0, STL 3.4 | DET 1, STL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.4, STL 27.7 | DET 21, STL 37 |
| Win chance | STL 57% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET D. Larkin | 3.0 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.9 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.5 | 6 | 0.81 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.4 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 4 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 5 | 0.82 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.0 | 2 | 1.06 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.8 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.8 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Watson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.