Game Recap: DET 5, STL 2, October 28, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

DET5

FinalTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

STL2

DET beat STL 5-2, with the chances close: 2.52 expected goals to 1.84. D. Larkin led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Bjugstad had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Gibson stopped 20 of 22.

Team Stats

DETSTL

20Shots on goal22

2.52Expected goals1.84

47Shot attempts51

165v5 shots on goal17

1/2Power play0/2

14Hits31

14Blocked shots11

9Penalty minutes9

19Giveaways12

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.52 xGSTL 1.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET18 on goal, 4 scored

STL22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	2	1	3	3	0	1	0	0	18:27	1:20
L. Raymond	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	16:09	1:28
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	15:37	1:20
M. Appleton	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	16:15	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	13:31	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:00	0:52
E. Soderblom	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	12:05	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	15:18	0:47
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:48	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:37	0:55
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:35	1:23
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:16	0:55
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	24:51	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	23:53	1:20
B. Chiarot	D	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	2	19:07	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	18:18	0:55
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:28	0:00
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	5	14:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	19:42	1:56
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	17:10	1:13
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	5	15:43	2:05
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	2	19:06	2:06
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	18:22	2:30
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:36	2:20
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:52	1:15
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	2	14:33	0:00
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:31	1:49
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	4	2	2	0	0	13:32	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:38	0:05
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:39	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	0	20:48	0:41
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	23:25	0:18
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	23:06	1:42
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:34	2:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:07	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	12:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	19	15	4	.789	56:43	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1D. Larkin13:45L. Raymond12:20E. Finnie12:26

Line 2M. Appleton13:47A. DeBrincat13:03M. Kasper12:14

Line 3M. Rasmussen12:11E. Soderblom12:05J. Riemsdyk12:08

Line 4A. Copp12:14J. Berggren12:12J. Compher12:26

Pair 1M. Seider20:04S. Edvinsson20:29

Pair 2B. Chiarot17:23A. Sandin-Pellikka16:52

Pair 3T. Hamonic11:03A. Johansson15:38

STL

Line 1J. Kyrou15:26D. Holloway15:05P. Suter14:04

Line 2N. Bjugstad12:29A. Texier12:15O. Sundqvist10:48

Line 3B. Schenn11:30P. Buchnevich12:53J. Snuggerud11:43

Line 4N. Walker14:33A. Toropchenko10:08M. Joseph10:20

Pair 1C. Parayko20:18P. Broberg19:43

Pair 2J. Faulk18:04C. Fowler17:51

Pair 3T. Tucker12:03L. Mailloux13:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustin Faulk DET First game back in St. Louis, his team until Mar 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.1, STL 3.1	DET 5, STL 2
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	DET 26.1, STL 25.5	DET 20, STL 22
Win chance	STL 50%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	2.9	3	0.78	2	30%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	3	0.83	1	34%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.7	3	0.93	3	33%	2
STL D. Holloway	2.3	1	0.76	0	26%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	1	0.84	0	28%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.9	2	0.49	0	22%	0
DET L. Raymond	1.9	2	0.77	2	25%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.9	1	0.68	0	22%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.8	0	0.46	1	11%	0
DET M. Seider	1.8	1	0.48	1	8%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.48	0	8%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.7	0	0.51	0	18%	0
STL P. Suter	1.7	2	0.52	1	22%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	2	0.62	1	22%	1
STL C. Fowler	1.5	2	0.61	0	10%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.4	4	0.29	0	14%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	2	0.38	2	10%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.3	0	0.29	0	13%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.3	0	0.33	1	13%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.3	1	0.44	1	17%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.3	0	0.32	0	11%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	1	0.20	1	6%	1
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.2	1	0.22	0	6%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	0	0.45	0	17%	0
DET A. Copp	1.2	0	0.41	0	15%	0
STL N. Walker	1.2	1	0.32	0	15%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.2	0	0.37	0	17%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.1	2	0.33	1	14%	1
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	0	0.29	1	13%	0
DET T. Hamonic	1.1	2	0.16	0	4%	0
STL A. Texier	1.1	1	0.29	0	13%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.0	0	0.32	1	9%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	0	0.35	0	12%	0
STL L. Mailloux	0.9	0	0.27	0	6%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	1	0.15	0	4%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.8	1	0.19	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.