Game Recap: DET 2, STL 3, November 10, 2026

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Game Recap

DET2

FinalTue, Nov 10, 2026Every game that night

STL3

STL beat DET 3-2, with the chances close: 3.44 expected goals to 2.74. A. Copp led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Holloway had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Hofer stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	1	0	1	2
STL	0	2	1	3

1st 19:47DETA. Copp0.08 xG
2nd 0:37STLP. Suter0.14 xG
2nd 2:34STLJ. Barron0.15 xG
3rd 15:58STLJ. Snuggerud0.25 xG
3rd 18:46DETM. Seider0.05 xG

Team Stats

DETSTL

32Shots on goal33

2.74Expected goals3.44

63Shot attempts65

225v5 shots on goal32

0/1Power play0/1

35Hits24

15Blocked shots16

7Penalty minutes7

23Giveaways15

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.74 xGSTL 3.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET31 on goal, 2 scored

STL33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Copp	C	1	1	2	3	1	2	+2	0	19:11	0:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	2	2	2	0	1	+2	0	19:06	1:49
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:14	1:49
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:49	1:48
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	16:29	1:50
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	15:56	0:11
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	1	10	1	+1	0	15:22	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:06	0:11
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:27	0:12
S. Dries	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	2	10:07	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	10:03	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	9:57	0:00
M. Seider	D	1	0	1	6	3	0	0	0	26:24	1:47
B. Chiarot	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	0	21:32	0:10
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	-1	0	21:20	0:13
W. Wallinder	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	18:30	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	14:38	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	13:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	33	30	3	.909	57:37	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	19:23	2:00
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	18:39	2:00
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	7	2	3	+1	0	17:53	0:00
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:29	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	1	1	2	5	1	+1	0	11:50	0:00
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	17:59	2:00
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	17:22	2:00
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:05	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:21	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	13:42	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	6	1	+1	5	9:41	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	6:36	0:00
J. Barron	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	18:20	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	16:58	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	24:50	2:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	21:59	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:09	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	17:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1A. DeBrincat16:22E. Finnie16:29V. Arvidsson13:02

Line 2A. Copp15:07M. Brandsegg-Nygård15:22L. Raymond14:54

Line 3J. Compher14:04M. Rasmussen12:56M. Kasper14:55

Line 4M. Appleton9:17S. Dries9:23K. Kolesar9:11

Pair 1B. Chiarot21:03J. Faulk20:48

Pair 2M. Seider20:33W. Wallinder16:49

Pair 3A. Johansson14:38A. Englund13:12

STL

Line 1D. Holloway16:30J. Snuggerud15:16R. Thomas15:22

Line 2P. Buchnevich14:28C. McMichael14:21D. Dvorsky6:36

Line 3J. Neighbours14:59M. McTavish15:22J. Berggren13:42

Line 4P. Suter13:08A. Toropchenko11:26R. Johnston9:41

Pair 1P. Broberg20:04L. Mailloux18:09

Pair 2C. Fowler17:31B. Carlo16:29

Pair 3C. Parayko18:04J. Barron16:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+130	-144	1	Under
STL D. Holloway	2.5	+130	-145	7	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	+110	-135	3	Over
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+106	-115	2	Under
STL M. McTavish	2.5	+128	-150	1	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-110	-111	4	Over
DET A. Copp	1.5	+100	-115	3	Over
STL C. McMichael	1.5	+120	-135	1	Under
STL C. Parayko	1.5	+120	-150	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-135	+125	2	Over
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	+125	-140	1	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	-130	+110	1	Under
DET M. Seider	1.5	-150	+126	6	Over
STL P. Broberg	1.5	-110	-108	1	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	+105	-110	3	Over
STL R. Thomas	1.5	-105	-120	2	Over

5 of 36 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+480	-650	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+175	-225	0	Under
DET A. Englund	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
STL A. Toropchenko	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+425	-550	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+275	-380	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
STL J. Barron	0.5	+1100	-2800	1	Over
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+700	-900	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+310	-500	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+180	-210	1	Over
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
STL L. Mailloux	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
DET M. Appleton	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+430	-650	0	Under
DET M. Kasper	0.5	+625	-800	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+230	-270	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+625	-900	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+650	-900	1	Over
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under
STL P. Suter	0.5	+650	-800	1	Over
STL R. Johnston	0.5	+1500	-2000	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+290	-320	0	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+850	–	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under

6 of 25 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+275	-375	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+165	-180	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+450	-700	1	Over
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+240	-325	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+320	-425	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+170	-195	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under
STL J. Barron	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+240	-255	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+175	-213	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+120	-145	2	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+280	-325	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+196	-235	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+130	-165	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+145	-175	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-111	-105	2	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+195	-240	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+310	-440	0	Under

8 of 25 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+160	-200	2	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-150	+130	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+340	-500	1	Over
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+170	-190	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+140	-165	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+210	-290	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	-105	+100	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
STL J. Barron	0.5	+320	-475	1	Over
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+210	-290	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+185	-250	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+165	-205	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+114	-130	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	-135	+125	2	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-160	+130	2	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+160	-165	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	-120	+100	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+205	-285	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+100	-130	1	Over
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+105	-125	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-200	+170	2	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-125	-105	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under

0 of 18 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+210	-275	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+360	-800	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+380	-550	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+450	-550	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+350	-400	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+200	-250	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+280	-400	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+240	-325	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+300	-400	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+300	-350	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+320	-450	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
STL J. Hofer	25.5	-106	-115	30	Over
DET J. Gibson	23.5	-104	-125	30	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
STL C. Parayko	1.5	-130	-110	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestonePius Suter STL 1 goal from 100Got there: 1 G, 2 SOG
MilestonePius Suter STL 1 point from 200Got there: 1 G, 2 SOG
Old teamJustin Faulk DET First game back in St. Louis, his team until Mar 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.0, STL 3.2	DET 2, STL 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	DET 27.6, STL 26.3	DET 32, STL 33
Win chance	STL 54%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.2	1	0.91	0	35%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	2.8	4	0.80	0	30%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	3	0.87	2	31%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.5	7	0.84	1	28%	0
STL M. McTavish	2.3	1	0.69	0	26%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.3	2	0.82	2	26%	0
DET M. Seider	2.0	6	0.56	1	8%	1
DET E. Finnie	1.8	2	0.55	0	24%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	2	1.10	2	28%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.44	0	9%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.7	1	0.60	0	13%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.7	1	0.45	0	19%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.7	1	0.34	0	16%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.6	1	0.38	0	11%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	3	0.61	0	22%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	3	0.51	2	17%	1
STL C. McMichael	1.5	1	0.53	0	19%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	1	0.57	0	22%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	0	0.32	0	9%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.3	2	0.32	0	15%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	2	0.18	1	4%	0
STL P. Suter	1.2	2	0.39	1	17%	1
DET J. Compher	1.2	0	0.38	0	14%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.1	5	0.36	0	14%	0
STL J. Barron	1.1	2	0.31	1	8%	1
STL D. Dvorsky	1.1	0	0.25	0	13%	0
DET S. Dries	1.1	1	0.19	0	11%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	2	0.24	1	10%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.0	2	0.42	0	7%	0
STL B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.15	1	3%	0
DET W. Wallinder	0.9	2	0.24	0	4%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	2	0.16	0	3%	0
DET M. Appleton	0.8	1	0.19	0	8%	0
STL R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.16	0	5%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0
DET A. Englund	0.5	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.