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Game Recap
DET3
TBL4
TBL beat DET 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.16 expected goals to 3.16. DET outshot TBL 30 to 22. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. DeBrincat had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| TBL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 5:31DETD. Perron0.23 xG
- 1st 17:05TBLC. Geekie0.25 xG
- 2nd 15:53TBLE. Cernak0.35 xG
- 2nd 18:03TBLJ. Guentzel0.14 xG
- 3rd 2:56DETM. Kasper0.21 xG
- 3rd 15:16DETA. DeBrincat0.19 xG
- OT 0:27TBLN. Kucherov0.47 xG
Team Stats
DETTBL
30Shots on goal22
3.16Expected goals3.16
59Shot attempts46
245v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play0/1
12Hits12
10Blocked shots15
2Penalty minutes6
10Giveaways16
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.16 xGTBL 3.16 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:51 | 3:29 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 3:36 |
| D. Perron | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:48 | 2:30 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:56 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:14 | 1:20 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:04 | 3:29 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:33 | 2:44 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:56 | 1:36 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:53 |
| C. Mazur | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Brandsegg-Nygård | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 2:35 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:50 | 3:23 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 2:29 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 1:53 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:29 | 2:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 2:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:00 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:43 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:10 | 1:17 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 22:10 | 0:07 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:49 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | 17:35 | 2:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 60:27 | Win |
| K. Konin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1L. Raymond14:35E. Finnie14:46D. Larkin14:15
Line 2P. Kane13:39A. DeBrincat13:55A. Copp13:37
Line 3D. Perron12:18J. Compher12:18C. Mazur12:23
Line 4M. Kasper11:54M. Brandsegg-Nygård11:27J. Riemsdyk10:54
Pair 1M. Seider20:45S. Edvinsson20:02
Pair 2B. Chiarot17:09J. Faulk17:19
Pair 3A. Sandin-Pellikka15:12A. Johansson13:32
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde15:20N. Paul15:00Z. Girgensons13:08
Line 2J. Guentzel16:16B. Point13:44C. Perry13:29
Line 3A. Cirelli13:47N. Kucherov14:09G. Goncalves13:53
Line 4S. Sabourin8:56C. Geekie8:49O. Bjorkstrand8:55
Pair 1D. Carlile19:25J. Moser20:08
Pair 2R. McDonagh16:56E. Cernak16:06
Pair 3C. D'Astous15:35E. Lilleberg16:24
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.9, TBL 3.7 | DET 3, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.2, TBL 29.0 | DET 30, TBL 22 |
| Win chance | TBL 62% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.1 | 6 | 0.87 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 3 | 1.66 | 2 | 39% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 2 | 1.12 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 2 | 1.01 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.1 | 4 | 0.57 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET J. Faulk | 1.5 | 4 | 0.37 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.5 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DET D. Perron | 1.4 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL C. Perry | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.2 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård | 1.2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.8 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET C. Mazur | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.