Game Recap: DET 3, VAN 2 (OT), February 2, 2025

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Game Recap

DET3

Final/OTSun, Feb 2, 2025Every game that night

VAN2

DET beat VAN 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.65 expected goals to 2.96. VAN outshot DET 27 to 18. A. DeBrincat led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. DeBrincat had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Lyon stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DET	1	1	0	1	3
VAN	1	0	1	0	2

1st 4:19VANP. Suter0.12 xG
1st 6:14DETA. DeBrincat0.14 xG
2nd 5:54DETB. Chiarot0.01 xG
3rd 10:46VANF. Chytil0.11 xG
OT 4:18DETA. DeBrincat0.22 xG

Team Stats

DETVAN

18Shots on goal27

1.65Expected goals2.96

45Shot attempts59

155v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play0/0

15Hits24

19Blocked shots17

0Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways23

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 1.65 xGVAN 2.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET17 on goal, 3 scored

VAN27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	2	0	2	6	0	0	+2	18:48	1:32
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	18:10	0:23
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	17:22	1:30
E. Soderblom	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	14:49	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	13:11	0:30
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	19:10	1:36
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	18:19	1:32
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	17:14	0:24
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	15:08	0:01
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	14:18	0:27
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	12:15	0:00
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	11:45	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	+2	26:10	1:07
B. Chiarot	D	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	22:37	0:05
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	22:08	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	21:09	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:43	0:53
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	13:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	27	25	2	.926	64:18	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Chytil	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	20:03	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	1	1	2	8	1	0	0	15:28	0:00
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	14:56	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	20:41	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	18:59	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:36	0:00
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:14	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:31	0:00
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:04	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:44	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	9:12	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	8:47	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	16:12	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	26:44	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	25:57	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	24:14	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	19:35	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	18	15	3	.833	64:18	OT loss
T. Demko	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamFilip Hronek VAN Faces DET, his team until Feb 20232 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 2.6, VAN 3.1	DET 3, VAN 2
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	DET 24.8, VAN 27.1	DET 18, VAN 27
Win chance	VAN 58%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET D. Larkin	3.0	1	0.90	0	31%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.5	6	0.70	2	26%	2
VAN C. Garland	2.5	4	0.72	0	27%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.4	3	0.57	1	23%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.3	3	0.84	0	33%	0
DET P. Kane	2.2	3	0.71	0	22%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.2	1	0.91	0	31%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	0	0.65	0	30%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.1	1	0.85	1	26%	0
DET M. Seider	1.8	1	0.51	1	9%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.8	3	0.50	1	23%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.8	0	0.39	0	17%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.8	1	0.53	0	21%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.7	1	0.44	0	17%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.7	2	0.44	1	20%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	2	0.54	0	9%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.4	2	0.22	1	7%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.3	0	0.36	0	5%	0
DET A. Copp	1.3	1	0.41	1	15%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.3	0	0.36	1	16%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.2	3	0.34	0	17%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.2	0	0.36	1	14%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.2	1	0.41	0	5%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	0	0.33	0	13%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	0	0.34	0	10%	0
DET A. Johansson	1.0	0	0.20	0	5%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	0.9	0	0.30	0	9%	0
VAN D. Joshua	0.9	0	0.39	0	18%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	0.9	3	0.19	0	12%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	0.8	0	0.25	0	5%	0
DET C. Fischer	0.8	1	0.19	0	7%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.8	0	0.10	0	3%	0
DET J. Holl	0.4	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.