Game Recap: DET 5, VAN 2, October 22, 2026

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Game Recap

DET5

FinalThu, Oct 22, 2026Every game that night

VAN2

DET beat VAN 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.70 expected goals to 1.78. DET outshot VAN 31 to 13. L. Raymond led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Gibson stopped 4 of 5.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	3	1	1	5
VAN	1	0	1	2

1st 4:18DETL. Raymond0.03 xG
1st 6:04DETW. Wallinder0.04 xG
1st 7:02VANE. PetterssonPP0.09 xG
1st 8:56DETL. RaymondPP0.68 xG
2nd 14:58DETM. Rasmussen0.08 xG
3rd 4:00DETE. Finnie0.12 xG
3rd 10:37VANJ. Lekkerimäki0.45 xG

Team Stats

DETVAN

31Shots on goal13

3.70Expected goals1.78

61Shot attempts38

265v5 shots on goal10

1/4Power play1/4

21Hits25

11Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes8

6Giveaways16

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.70 xGVAN 1.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET30 on goal, 5 scored

VAN13 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	2	1	3	5	1	0	+2	0	17:42	2:35
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+2	0	16:25	1:19
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	13:59	2:03
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	2	15:15	2:03
E. Finnie	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	15:00	0:44
M. Rasmussen	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:34	0:44
J. Compher	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:20	0:00
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	0	20:09	2:31
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:30	0:50
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	13:09	0:48
C. Mazur	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	2	10:49	0:45
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	10:15	0:46
A. Johansson	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	19:44	0:11
A. Johansson	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	2	17:48	0:14
W. Wallinder	D	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	13:34	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-1	0	23:23	2:36
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	22:30	1:09
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	20:21	1:17

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	5	4	1	.800	40:00	Win
M. Postava	8	7	1	.875	19:45

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	1	1	2	2	3	0	+1	0	17:44	4:10
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	-1	2	20:48	4:17
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	9:38	1:48
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:32	1:40
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:52	4:08
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	17:13	1:42
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	16:49	0:00
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:09	4:13
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:23	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	11:18	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	11:13	1:50
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	10:29	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	0	24:26	4:12
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:57	1:45
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	21:18	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	20:10	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-2	0	15:09	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	11:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	31	26	5	.839	60:00	Loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1D. Larkin15:31M. Brandsegg-Nygård15:06L. Raymond15:07

Line 2V. Arvidsson11:56A. DeBrincat12:28E. Finnie11:32

Line 3A. Copp12:46M. Rasmussen11:34J. Compher11:25

Line 4C. Mazur10:04K. Kolesar10:16N. Danielson9:22

Pair 1B. Chiarot18:42M. Seider17:07

Pair 2A. Johansson16:07A. Johansson15:59

Pair 3J. Faulk17:21W. Wallinder13:02

VAN

Line 1E. Pettersson15:33L. Karlsson15:31D. O'Connor14:33

Line 2J. DeBrusk13:44F. Chytil16:07J. Lekkerimäki13:34

Line 3A. Bains11:18M. Sasson10:47B. Gallagher10:29

Line 4P. Cotter9:23M. Rossi7:50B. Boeser8:40

Pair 1E. Pettersson18:26F. Hronek18:00

Pair 2T. Willander20:30Z. Buium18:25

Pair 3J. Oleksiak12:58V. Mancini9:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 16 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+100	-120	4	Over
DET D. Larkin	2.5	-115	+105	2	Under
VAN F. Chytil	2.5	+140	-160	1	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	+130	-155	2	Under
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+105	-130	5	Over
DET M. Seider	2.5	+140	-190	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-115	-105	2	Under
DET A. Copp	1.5	+110	-120	1	Under
VAN B. Boeser	1.5	-160	+135	1	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	1.5	+100	-115	1	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-118	+110	2	Over
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	-130	+100	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	+100	-125	2	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	+105	-115	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	-145	+130	2	Over
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	+120	-155	0	Under

4 of 33 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
VAN A. Bains	0.5	+750	–	0	Under
DET A. Copp	0.5	+380	-475	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+150	-150	0	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+270	-330	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+750	-2500	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+460	-650	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+333	-350	1	Over
VAN E. Pettersson	0.5	+1300	–	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+440	-600	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+230	-330	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+475	-500	1	Over
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+2100	-4000	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+370	-650	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+230	-275	2	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+340	-475	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+425	-800	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+950	–	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
VAN V. Mancini	0.5	+2200	–	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under

9 of 28 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+250	-250	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+120	-150	1	Over
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+450	-700	1	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+175	-240	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+120	-140	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+235	-300	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+110	-135	1	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+260	-350	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+260	-310	1	Over
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+700	–	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+300	-370	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+105	-135	1	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+240	-245	2	Over
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+230	-295	1	Over
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	-110	-105	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+158	-195	2	Over
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+230	-295	1	Over

11 of 28 overs hit (39%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+140	-140	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-200	+200	1	Over
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+370	-550	1	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	-115	-105	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+320	–	0	Under
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+300	–	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	-180	+145	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+120	-130	1	Over
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+165	-180	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	-120	-105	1	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+165	-215	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+135	-155	2	Over
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+360	–	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+165	-185	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-175	+145	3	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+115	-125	2	Over
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+170	-235	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+130	-150	1	Over
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+330	–	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	-150	+130	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+180	-255	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-138	+120	2	Over
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+180	-220	1	Over

5 of 18 overs hit (28%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+155	-200	1	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+280	-450	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+225	-300	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+250	-300	1	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+290	-500	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+300	-600	1	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+210	-275	1	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+390	-625	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+170	-235	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+250	-375	1	Over
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DET M. Seider	2.5	+130	-185	5	Over
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	-130	-110	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.6, VAN 2.9	DET 5, VAN 2
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	DET 30.2, VAN 24.5	DET 31, VAN 13
Win chance	DET 61%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.8	4	1.24	1	40%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	3.1	2	1.02	2	33%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.1	2	1.07	0	36%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.5	5	1.11	3	31%	2
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	2.4	2	0.58	2	20%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	2	0.57	0	26%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.2	1	0.49	0	21%	0
DET M. Seider	2.1	0	0.80	0	12%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	1	0.75	0	31%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.8	2	0.58	1	23%	1
VAN L. Karlsson	1.8	0	0.56	0	20%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.7	1	0.81	1	27%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.7	1	0.41	0	19%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.7	0	0.62	1	10%	0
DET A. Copp	1.6	1	0.63	0	19%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.6	1	0.51	0	11%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.4	2	0.48	2	19%	1
VAN M. Rossi	1.4	0	0.58	1	22%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.4	1	0.43	1	18%	1
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	1	0.26	0	7%	0
VAN B. Gallagher	1.2	1	0.26	0	11%	0
VAN P. Cotter	1.2	0	0.40	0	20%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	1	0.31	0	16%	0
DET C. Mazur	1.0	3	0.25	0	11%	0
VAN J. Oleksiak	1.0	0	0.23	0	6%	0
DET J. Compher	0.9	1	0.35	1	13%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	0	0.18	1	5%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.9	1	0.32	0	7%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.8	2	0.26	1	6%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	2	0.22	1	4%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.6	2	0.19	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.