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Game Recap
DET4
WPG2
DET beat WPG 4-2, with the chances close: 2.88 expected goals to 2.46. L. Raymond led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Larkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Lyon stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| WPG | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 6:25DETD. LarkinPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 4:33DETL. RaymondPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 5:48WPGJ. Morrissey0.03 xG
- 3rd 7:14DETA. DeBrincat0.10 xG
- 3rd 16:45WPGN. Ehlers0.05 xG
- 3rd 19:31DETD. LarkinEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
DETWPG
29Shots on goal23
2.88Expected goals2.46
51Shot attempts59
185v5 shots on goal21
2/3Power play0/2
9Hits21
13Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes6
7Giveaways6
7Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.88 xGWPG 2.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 2:53 |
| D. Larkin | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:28 | 2:53 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 2:53 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:03 | 2:53 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 1:01 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 1:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 1:01 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:32 | 1:01 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 26:13 | 2:53 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:07 | 0:01 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 1:01 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:36 | 2:41 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:03 | 2:43 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:35 | 1:19 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 1:17 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 2:31 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:36 | 2:43 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 1:29 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:53 | 1:17 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 26:43 | 1:28 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:41 | 2:32 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:23 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:00 |
| V. Heinola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 57:53 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.7, WPG 3.5 | DET 4, WPG 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.7, WPG 29.6 | DET 29, WPG 23 |
| Win chance | WPG 62% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.3 | 2 | 1.16 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 6 | 0.77 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.4 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.3 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 1 | 1.10 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 3 | 0.60 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.0 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.9 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 3 | 0.71 | 3 | 24% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 3 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.4 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.0 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG V. Heinola | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.