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Game Recap
DET5
WPG1
DET beat WPG 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.47 expected goals to 2.09. J. Compher led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Compher had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Gibson stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| WPG | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 10:08WPGC. Koepke0.15 xG
- 2nd 15:50DETJ. Compher0.28 xG
- 3rd 1:43DETJ. Compher0.15 xG
- 3rd 8:11DETL. Raymond0.08 xG
- 3rd 18:11DETA. DeBrincatEN0.87 xG
- 3rd 18:43DETM. Kasper0.18 xG
Team Stats
DETWPG
31Shots on goal27
3.47Expected goals2.09
58Shot attempts55
265v5 shots on goal24
0/3Power play0/1
22Hits22
14Blocked shots15
2Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways12
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.47 xGWPG 2.09 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 4:02 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:59 |
| J. Compher | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:32 | 2:31 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:14 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:25 | 4:02 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:07 | 3:59 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 1:59 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:19 | 3:29 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 28:14 | 4:10 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:38 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:29 | 1:57 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Koepke | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 22:28 | 1:31 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:39 | 1:31 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:56 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:49 | 1:08 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:48 | 0:29 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:52 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:10 | 1:04 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:29 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:47 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:17 | 1:13 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:25 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 58:49 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1D. Larkin14:47L. Raymond13:53M. Kasper12:30
Line 2P. Kane14:41A. DeBrincat14:50A. Copp14:28
Line 3M. Appleton11:36M. Rasmussen12:42E. Soderblom10:14
Line 4J. Compher11:45E. Finnie10:51J. Riemsdyk10:00
Pair 1J. Bernard-Docker16:51M. Seider21:54
Pair 2T. Hamonic14:05A. Johansson18:38
Pair 3B. Chiarot18:48A. Sandin-Pellikka11:32
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele18:41K. Connor19:02A. Iafallo14:57
Line 2N. Niederreiter13:00V. Namestnikov13:52A. Lowry13:09
Line 3J. Toews9:55C. Perfetti9:48G. Vilardi13:30
Line 4M. Barron9:46T. Pearson8:34C. Koepke8:31
Pair 1D. DeMelo19:14J. Morrissey21:34
Pair 2D. Samberg18:14E. Salomonsson18:15
Pair 3L. Schenn11:12L. Stanley12:51
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.8, WPG 3.2 | DET 5, WPG 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.1, WPG 27.5 | DET 31, WPG 27 |
| Win chance | WPG 57% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.2 | 5 | 1.14 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 4 | 0.77 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.5 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 2 | 1.11 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.1 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.9 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.8 | 3 | 0.73 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.6 | 3 | 0.32 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.2 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 1.0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.0 | 4 | 0.33 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| WPG E. Salomonsson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.8 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.