Game Recap: EDM 4, BOS 0, January 7, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM4

FinalTue, Jan 7, 2025Every game that night

BOS0

EDM beat BOS 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 5.65 expected goals to 2.50. EDM outshot BOS 39 to 26. A. Henrique led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). V. Podkolzin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Skinner stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	2	1	4
BOS	0	0	0	0

1st 6:33EDMA. Henrique0.13 xG
2nd 11:11EDMC. McDavidPP0.17 xG
2nd 16:35EDMA. Henrique0.17 xG
3rd 16:25EDMV. ArvidssonEN0.54 xG

Team Stats

EDMBOS

39Shots on goal26

5.65Expected goals2.50

70Shot attempts55

305v5 shots on goal21

1/3Power play0/2

18Hits45

16Blocked shots17

9Penalty minutes11

11Giveaways11

13Takeaways11

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 5.65 xGBOS 2.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM38 on goal, 4 scored

BOS25 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Henrique	C	2	0	2	2	0	1	+2	0	14:32	0:52
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	18:04	3:40
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:20	3:46
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	15:42	3:45
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:42	0:27
J. Skinner	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	12:21	0:48
C. Perry	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	5	11:31	0:22
L. Draisaitl	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	2	20:07	3:44
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	5	5	2	+1	0	16:38	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:27	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:33	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:37	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	2	2	1	0	3	+2	0	24:24	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	3	1	+1	0	23:50	0:56
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	0	20:56	3:45
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	19:34	0:36
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+2	0	15:53	0:00
J. Brown	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	11:49	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	26	26	0	1.000	54:35	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	5:25

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	19:50	3:09
B. Marchand	LW	6	2	2	-2	2	17:56	2:17
E. Lindholm	C	3	5	1	-1	0	17:46	2:00
C. Coyle	C	1	1	1	-1	0	17:23	2:00
P. Zacha	C	2	0	0	-1	0	17:16	2:01
M. Geekie	C	1	4	1	-1	0	17:09	1:59
J. Brazeau	RW	0	3	0	0	0	15:05	1:43
T. Frederic	C	2	3	0	0	7	14:56	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	4	3	1	0	0	12:59	0:50
M. Kastelic	C	2	6	0	-1	0	10:18	0:00
J. Beecher	C	1	2	0	-1	0	9:38	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	5	0	-1	0	9:04	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	4	2	-1	0	22:58	2:06
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	0	20:51	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	1	3	2	0	2	19:22	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	2	0	0	19:17	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	1	1	3	-3	0	17:42	1:55
A. Peeke	D	1	1	1	-2	0	16:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	38	35	3	.921	59:14	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTrent Frederic EDM Faces BOS, his team until Feb 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.1, BOS 2.9	EDM 4, BOS 0
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	EDM 28.9, BOS 26.9	EDM 39, BOS 26
Win chance	EDM 52%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.8	1	1.06	0	41%	0
EDM C. McDavid	2.9	5	1.49	1	36%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.6	3	0.69	1	32%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	3	1.21	0	38%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.3	6	0.75	0	27%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.2	3	0.54	1	18%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.2	5	0.75	0	13%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	4	0.38	0	9%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	1	0.44	0	10%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	1	0.51	0	21%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	1	0.71	1	21%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.7	2	0.63	0	22%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.6	3	0.55	0	22%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	0	0.51	0	10%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.5	0	0.41	0	20%	0
EDM J. Skinner	1.5	3	0.38	1	17%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.4	2	0.39	0	18%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	1	0.28	2	6%	0
BOS O. Wahlstrom	1.4	4	0.24	0	12%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.3	1	0.44	0	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	5	0.28	0	11%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	2	0.39	2	17%	2
EDM C. Brown	1.3	1	0.35	0	10%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	1	0.29	0	10%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	2	0.24	0	11%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.0	0	0.27	0	10%	0
EDM C. Perry	0.9	1	0.29	1	13%	0
BOS B. Carlo	0.9	0	0.16	0	5%	0
BOS C. Koepke	0.9	0	0.23	0	12%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	1	0.36	0	6%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.29	0	9%	0
EDM J. Brown	0.8	1	0.13	0	4%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.8	0	0.16	0	2%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.18	0	2%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.6	1	0.18	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.