Game Recap: EDM 3, BOS 1, December 18, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM3

FinalThu, Dec 18, 2025Every game that night

BOS1

EDM beat BOS 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.95 expected goals to 1.95. R. Nugent-Hopkins led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Jarry stopped 12 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	1	1	3
BOS	1	0	0	1

1st 13:38EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.03 xG
1st 16:27BOSP. ZachaPP0.16 xG
2nd 14:38EDMQ. Hutson0.30 xG
3rd 1:41EDMC. McDavidSH0.52 xG

Team Stats

EDMBOS

25Shots on goal26

2.95Expected goals1.95

46Shot attempts57

155v5 shots on goal18

1/5Power play1/3

21Hits22

19Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes20

12Giveaways15

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.95 xGBOS 1.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM25 on goal, 3 scored

BOS25 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	22:56	6:13
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	0	22:05	6:11
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	22:50	6:11
Q. Hutson	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	6:26	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	5:48	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	20:14	5:51
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	16:04	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	3	2	4	0	0	15:07	1:17
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:17	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:13	0:57
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:41	0:55
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:40	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	+1	2	21:23	1:20
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	25:09	5:48
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	22:33	0:54
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	19:09	0:03
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	14:31	0:00
R. Stillman	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	13	12	1	.923	36:08	Win
C. Pickard	13	13	0	1.000	23:52

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	12	19:33	2:46
P. Zacha	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	15:26	2:46
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	22:07	2:48
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	20:14	2:43
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:45	1:46
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:47	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	13:19	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	13:16	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:42	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:26	0:00
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	9:44	1:46
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:32	1:48
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	-2	0	23:21	2:44
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	25:10	1:49
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	21:10	0:07
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	20:04	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	15:13	1:37
V. Soderstrom	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	12:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	25	22	3	.880	58:35	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman13:22C. McDavid13:48R. Nugent-Hopkins12:53

Line 2L. Draisaitl16:05V. Podkolzin15:49M. Savoie10:37

Line 3A. Henrique11:49A. Mangiapane10:46M. Janmark11:27

Line 4Q. Hutson6:26M. Jones5:48T. Frederic11:40

Pair 1M. Ekholm18:42E. Bouchard17:38

Pair 2D. Nurse17:13S. Stastney16:52

Pair 3R. Stillman11:22T. Emberson12:18

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak17:51M. Geekie16:06E. Lindholm14:39

Line 2C. Mittelstadt12:43P. Zacha10:41M. Khusnutdinov12:22

Line 3T. Jeannot10:15M. Kastelic9:47S. Kuraly8:05

Line 4M. Eyssimont7:44A. Steeves7:58F. Minten12:08

Pair 1H. Lindholm19:08A. Peeke19:08

Pair 2V. Soderstrom12:28M. Lohrei13:10

Pair 3C. McAvoy15:12N. Zadorov15:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTrent Frederic EDM Faces BOS, his team until Feb 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.1, BOS 3.0	EDM 3, BOS 1
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	EDM 29.8, BOS 26.4	EDM 25, BOS 26
Win chance	EDM 52%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	1	1.22	0	40%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	3	1.50	2	36%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	3.0	4	0.84	0	37%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	4	1.30	1	40%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	2	0.95	0	17%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	2.2	1	0.33	0	13%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	1	0.80	0	30%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	1	0.37	1	9%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	3	0.81	2	23%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	1	0.45	0	9%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.7	2	0.63	1	21%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	0	0.40	0	15%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.6	0	0.34	0	16%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	3	0.57	1	10%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	1	0.63	1	19%	1
BOS M. Kastelic	1.5	1	0.33	0	14%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.5	2	0.31	0	13%	0
BOS A. Steeves	1.5	1	0.46	0	20%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.5	3	0.35	0	17%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	3	0.42	0	8%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.4	0	0.35	0	16%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	2	0.34	0	9%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	2	0.54	0	18%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.2	0	0.33	0	13%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	0	0.23	0	4%	0
EDM M. Jones	1.0	3	0.19	1	8%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.0	0	0.30	0	14%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	0	0.19	0	10%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.9	2	0.29	0	12%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	0	0.20	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	0	0.26	0	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.8	1	0.31	0	5%	0
BOS V. Soderstrom	0.8	3	0.15	0	1%	0
EDM R. Stillman	0.5	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.