BUF beat EDM 3-2, with the chances close: 2.54 expected goals to 2.92. EDM outshot BUF 34 to 23. T. Thompson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Nurse had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. U. Luukkonen stopped 32 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| BUF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 13:28BUFT. Thompson0.33 xG
- 2nd 1:35EDMD. Nurse0.01 xG
- 2nd 3:52BUFA. Tuch0.20 xG
- 2nd 9:12EDME. BouchardPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 3:20BUFT. Thompson0.21 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.92 xGBUF 2.54 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:26 | 5:23 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:01 | 5:38 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:18 | 5:04 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:13 | 5:03 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:35 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:55 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:22 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 26:32 | 4:56 |
| D. Nurse | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:27 | 0:56 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:59 | 1:03 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 57:33 | Loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 1:54 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:50 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:09 | 1:13 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:33 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 1:43 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 1:52 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:49 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:53 | 1:53 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:07 | 0:02 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:20 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 23:53 | 2:58 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 22:15 | 0:02 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:58 | 0:24 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:22 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.5, BUF 3.1 | EDM 2, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 30.0, BUF 28.3 | EDM 34, BUF 23 |
| Win chance | EDM 56% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.1 | 2 | 1.64 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 3 | 0.92 | 2 | 37% | 2 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.9 | 4 | 1.37 | 2 | 43% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.8 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.7 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.6 | 6 | 0.90 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.4 | 6 | 0.47 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| EDM J. Walman | 2.4 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.3 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 1.8 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 4 | 0.79 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.8 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.