Game Recap: EDM 4, CAR 3 (OT), November 15, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM4

Final/OTSat, Nov 15, 2025Every game that night

CAR3

EDM beat CAR 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.33 expected goals to 3.11. CAR outshot EDM 36 to 23. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Aho had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Skinner stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	2	0	1	1	4
CAR	1	1	1	0	3

1st 3:47EDMJ. Roslovic0.19 xG
1st 6:30EDMC. McDavidPP0.38 xG
1st 15:39CARE. Robinson0.05 xG
2nd 1:41CARN. Ehlers0.09 xG
3rd 5:46EDMC. McDavid0.22 xG
3rd 6:45CARJ. Staal0.18 xG
OT 0:19EDML. Draisaitl0.08 xG

Team Stats

EDMCAR

23Shots on goal36

3.33Expected goals3.11

51Shot attempts70

215v5 shots on goal29

1/1Power play0/2

25Hits17

13Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways23

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.33 xGCAR 3.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM21 on goal, 4 scored

CAR36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	2	1	3	5	2	1	+2	0	24:31	1:43
L. Draisaitl	C	1	2	3	3	2	0	+2	2	20:52	1:43
J. Roslovic	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	17:10	1:43
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	2	11	1	+1	0	23:10	1:43
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:32	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:53	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	13:12	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:35	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:12	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:50	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:10	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	7:08	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	22:41	1:16
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	2	23:36	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	23:31	0:27
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	20:26	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:33	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	36	33	3	.917	60:19	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:17	3:14
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:24	0:46
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-2	0	15:47	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:24	0:46
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	9:38	0:46
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	6:26	0:00
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	22:56	3:14
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	21:22	3:14
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	20:48	3:14
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	15:05	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	13:52	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	6:41	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	0	22:43	3:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	23:12	1:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	20:41	0:46
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	18:36	0:00
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	18:10	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	14:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	23	19	4	.826	60:19	OT loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman21:27C. McDavid22:08M. Savoie14:47

Line 2J. Roslovic15:27V. Podkolzin15:11L. Draisaitl18:29

Line 3A. Henrique11:26A. Mangiapane11:35T. Frederic7:08

Line 4C. Lazar7:04N. Philp8:06M. Janmark9:59

Pair 1D. Nurse22:36J. Walman22:20

Pair 2M. Ekholm18:18E. Bouchard19:14

Pair 3B. Kulak13:23A. Regula12:47

CAR

Line 1S. Jarvis18:45S. Aho17:09A. Svechnikov17:34

Line 2J. Staal14:42J. Martinook14:21W. Carrier13:52

Line 3L. Stankoven15:38J. Blake14:38N. Ehlers14:03

Line 4T. Hall8:52E. Robinson6:26M. Jankowski6:41

Pair 1S. Gostisbehere19:24S. Walker20:56

Pair 2K. Miller19:09J. Nystrom17:25

Pair 3M. Reilly14:12A. Nikishin17:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamFrederik Andersen EDM First game back in Raleigh, his team until Jun 202619 saves on 23

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.1, CAR 3.2	EDM 4, CAR 3
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	EDM 26.3, CAR 29.7	EDM 23, CAR 36
Win chance	CAR 52%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	2.9	5	1.46	3	35%	2
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	3	1.28	3	42%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	2	0.76	1	25%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.5	7	0.96	0	33%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.4	2	0.73	0	26%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.2	3	0.67	2	23%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.2	1	0.76	1	15%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.1	2	0.56	1	28%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.1	2	0.71	0	26%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.1	2	0.34	0	11%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	1	0.54	1	20%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	2	0.47	1	18%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	1	0.56	1	21%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.6	0	0.30	0	7%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.5	2	0.38	0	9%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.5	2	0.37	0	8%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	0	0.37	0	14%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.5	3	0.23	0	5%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.4	3	0.36	0	8%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	1	0.41	0	19%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	2	0.40	0	10%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	1	0.43	0	15%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.3	1	0.29	0	12%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.3	3	0.38	1	15%	1
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.3	2	0.51	1	9%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	1	0.31	1	13%	1
CAR J. Nystrom	1.2	0	0.15	0	4%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.1	0	0.35	0	16%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	2	0.24	0	12%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	0	0.24	0	12%	0
EDM N. Philp	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.27	0	13%	0
EDM B. Kulak	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.7	0	0.08	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.20	0	8%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	0	0.17	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.