Game Recap: EDM 4, CBJ 5, November 13, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM4

FinalThu, Nov 13, 2025Every game that night

CBJ5

CBJ beat EDM 5-4, with the chances close: 4.00 expected goals to 3.29. M. Olivier led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Greaves stopped 25 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	2	2	4
CBJ	1	3	1	5

1st 15:36CBJM. Olivier0.12 xG
2nd 0:44CBJC. Coyle0.16 xG
2nd 8:09EDMM. Savoie0.08 xG
2nd 9:49EDML. Draisaitl0.07 xG
2nd 10:19CBJD. Mateychuk0.16 xG
2nd 18:20CBJA. Fantilli0.23 xG
3rd 7:30CBJM. Olivier0.22 xG
3rd 7:57EDMV. Podkolzin0.15 xG
3rd 11:27EDML. Draisaitl0.03 xG

Team Stats

EDMCBJ

29Shots on goal25

3.29Expected goals4.00

64Shot attempts52

215v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/1

15Hits12

11Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways14

2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.29 xGCBJ 4.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM29 on goal, 4 scored

CBJ25 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	+2	0	24:25	3:14
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	0	0	24:18	3:17
J. Roslovic	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	20:21	3:16
M. Savoie	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:44	1:20
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	15:24	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	17:31	2:37
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-4	2	11:18	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:43	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:48	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:34	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	9:21	0:44
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	8:34	0:43
E. Bouchard	D	0	3	3	4	0	1	+2	0	24:59	3:11
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+2	0	21:26	0:43
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	20:29	0:49
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:09	0:06
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	16:09	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	25	20	5	.800	57:58	Loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	1	2	3	2	0	1	+2	0	17:39	0:21
M. Olivier	RW	2	1	3	3	2	2	+2	2	17:16	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:20	1:38
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:59	1:39
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	17:02	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:22	1:37
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	11:29	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	15:58	1:38
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:22	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	11:05	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:03	0:23
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	9:04	0:22
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+2	0	24:21	1:36
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	-1	0	21:25	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	20:04	0:22
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+2	0	26:17	0:24
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:11	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	29	25	4	.862	60:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid17:21M. Savoie14:46L. Draisaitl17:39

Line 2J. Roslovic15:07V. Podkolzin14:43A. Henrique13:09

Line 3C. Lazar9:30N. Philp10:20M. Janmark9:48

Line 4T. Frederic8:37D. Tomasek7:51A. Mangiapane10:52

Pair 1M. Ekholm17:13E. Bouchard16:50

Pair 2D. Nurse18:54J. Walman17:12

Pair 3B. Kulak16:09A. Regula13:49

CBJ

Line 1A. Fantilli16:39K. Marchenko15:31D. Voronkov14:20

Line 2M. Olivier14:14C. Sillinger14:00C. Coyle12:54

Line 3S. Monahan11:28L. Belluz11:29K. Johnson10:40

Line 4M. Wood10:35I. Lundestrom9:23E. Chinakhov8:42

Pair 1Z. Werenski19:17I. Provorov18:38

Pair 2D. Severson18:58D. Mateychuk18:48

Pair 3J. Christiansen11:03D. Fabbro13:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.3, CBJ 3.4	EDM 4, CBJ 5
Total goals	6.7	9
Shots on goal	EDM 30.5, CBJ 29.2	EDM 29, CBJ 25
Win chance	CBJ 51%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.1	4	0.88	1	20%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	3	1.47	2	36%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	4	1.28	2	43%	2
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	4	0.85	3	18%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	2	0.89	1	32%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	3	0.76	1	29%	1
EDM J. Roslovic	2.4	2	0.66	1	24%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.2	0	0.69	0	27%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.1	0	0.81	1	24%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	2	0.35	0	9%	0
EDM J. Walman	2.0	1	0.44	0	12%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.9	1	0.34	0	16%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	2	0.41	0	9%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	1	0.45	1	16%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	1	0.38	1	14%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	0	0.61	0	20%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.5	0	0.34	0	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.5	3	0.40	0	19%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	2	0.52	3	19%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	1	0.40	0	9%	0
EDM D. Tomasek	1.3	0	0.26	0	11%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.3	1	0.38	0	18%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.3	3	0.24	1	11%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	3	0.35	3	14%	2
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	2	0.21	0	5%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	1	0.26	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	2	0.35	1	9%	0
EDM N. Philp	1.1	0	0.20	0	9%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	1.0	3	0.38	1	13%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	1	0.26	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.33	1	10%	1
EDM A. Regula	1.0	0	0.10	0	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.22	0	9%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	1	0.20	0	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	0	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.