Game Recap: EDM 4, CGY 2, November 3, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

EDM4

FinalSun, Nov 3, 2024Every game that night

CGY2

EDM beat CGY 4-2, with the chances close: 3.08 expected goals to 2.35. L. Draisaitl led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). V. Podkolzin had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. S. Skinner stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	2	0	2	4
CGY	0	1	1	2

1st 0:20EDML. Draisaitl0.18 xG
1st 8:12EDMJ. Skinner0.03 xG
2nd 4:33CGYA. ManthaPP0.08 xG
3rd 4:28CGYY. Sharangovich0.01 xG
3rd 10:10EDMZ. HymanPP0.16 xG
3rd 19:57EDMM. JanmarkEN0.69 xG

Team Stats

EDMCGY

31Shots on goal31

3.08Expected goals2.35

53Shot attempts71

285v5 shots on goal26

1/3Power play1/2

19Hits13

25Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways22

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.08 xGCGY 2.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM31 on goal, 4 scored

CGY31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	1	2	3	3	0	0	+2	0	21:23	4:57
Z. Hyman	LW	1	1	2	3	1	1	+1	0	20:00	4:26
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:09	4:19
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	4	2	0	+1	0	16:03	0:00
M. Janmark	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:36	0:30
J. Skinner	LW	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	14:45	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	2	16:52	0:53
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	14:29	0:01
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	2	13:23	0:30
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:46	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	7:27	0:00
D. Caggiula	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	6:44	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	4	5	4	+1	0	23:21	1:52
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+2	0	24:46	4:27
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+3	2	24:40	2:50
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:51	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	13:12	0:00
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	19:06	1:47
Y. Sharangovich	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:37	2:06
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	16:20	1:45
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:12	2:09
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	4	17:27	2:15
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:59	1:01
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:38	1:10
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	15:05	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:05	0:00
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:52	1:41
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:55	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:37	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	-1	0	22:19	0:00
T. Barrie	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	14:05	1:34
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	-2	0	25:32	1:49
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	-1	0	23:49	2:23
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	19:56	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	30	27	3	.900	58:21	Loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.5, CGY 2.9	EDM 4, CGY 2
Total goals	6.4	6
Shots on goal	EDM 30.7, CGY 28.0	EDM 31, CGY 31
Win chance	EDM 59%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	1	0.82	0	28%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	3	0.81	2	36%	1
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.8	3	0.72	0	23%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	3	1.29	3	40%	1
EDM J. Skinner	2.6	1	0.67	1	26%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.4	1	0.87	0	15%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	4	0.57	0	24%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.3	2	0.53	1	19%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.1	2	0.63	1	26%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.1	2	0.52	0	13%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	1	0.53	0	11%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	4	0.37	1	9%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	2	0.84	1	23%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.8	0	0.57	0	20%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.7	3	0.73	0	20%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.7	0	0.39	0	12%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.6	4	0.55	0	11%	0
CGY M. Coronato	1.6	1	0.29	0	13%	0
CGY A. Kuzmenko	1.5	1	0.67	0	26%	0
CGY A. Mantha	1.4	4	0.51	1	20%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.4	3	0.28	0	10%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	0	0.48	0	21%	0
CGY T. Barrie	1.3	2	0.40	1	7%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.2	0	0.25	0	7%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	1	0.27	0	5%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	4	0.24	1	11%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.1	0	0.32	0	15%	0
EDM M. Janmark	1.0	2	0.29	1	11%	1
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.14	0	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	1	0.21	0	3%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.9	1	0.15	0	3%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.8	3	0.21	1	4%	0
EDM D. Caggiula	0.8	1	0.21	0	9%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	1	0.12	0	7%	0
EDM T. Dermott	0.6	0	0.13	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.