Game Recap: EDM 2, CGY 3, December 27, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM2

FinalSat, Dec 27, 2025Every game that night

CGY3

CGY beat EDM 3-2, with the chances close: 3.21 expected goals to 3.01. E. Bouchard led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. McDavid had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. D. Wolf stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	0	1	2
CGY	1	1	1	3

1st 7:00CGYY. Sharangovich0.12 xG
1st 8:36EDME. BouchardPP0.07 xG
2nd 3:28CGYR. Lomberg0.27 xG
3rd 12:31CGYB. Coleman0.17 xG
3rd 15:23EDMC. McDavid0.07 xG

Team Stats

EDMCGY

31Shots on goal32

3.01Expected goals3.21

67Shot attempts62

255v5 shots on goal27

1/3Power play0/2

13Hits29

21Blocked shots24

6Penalty minutes8

24Giveaways16

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.01 xGCGY 3.21 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM29 on goal, 2 scored

CGY31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	7	0	2	0	0	26:39	5:13
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	2	24:23	4:50
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	2	23:04	4:48
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	3	1	3	0	0	20:10	4:48
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:14	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:04	0:08
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:54	0:36
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:34	0:38
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:29	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	8:46	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	7:36	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:15	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	1	2	4	0	3	0	0	29:04	5:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:46	0:27
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	20:35	0:32
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:21	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	13:06	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	12:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	32	29	3	.906	58:26	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Y. Sharangovich	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	21:43	2:43
B. Coleman	LW	1	0	1	3	4	1	0	0	20:34	2:33
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	6	0	1	0	0	19:27	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	1	1	3	4	0	+3	2	10:49	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	1	0	1	2	6	1	+1	0	7:28	0:00
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	18:55	2:49
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	17:39	2:49
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	0	14:52	1:12
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:10	1:10
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:49	1:17
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:55	0:00
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	8:53	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	0	4	3	-1	2	22:41	0:16
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	26:21	2:58
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+2	0	22:12	1:02
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+2	4	21:35	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	13:29	0:00
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:04	1:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman16:42C. McDavid17:50R. Nugent-Hopkins12:14

Line 2L. Draisaitl16:41V. Podkolzin13:52J. Roslovic10:46

Line 3A. Henrique9:00A. Mangiapane10:29M. Savoie11:01

Line 4M. Janmark7:34T. Frederic7:15M. Jones7:36

Pair 1M. Ekholm18:42E. Bouchard19:35

Pair 2D. Nurse18:20A. Regula12:03

Pair 3S. Stastney14:20T. Emberson11:10

CGY

Line 1Y. Sharangovich16:36N. Kadri15:07J. Farabee11:29

Line 2M. Backlund15:07B. Coleman13:06C. Zary9:55

Line 3M. Coronato11:16M. Frost9:17J. Huberdeau12:57

Line 4R. Lomberg7:28A. Klapka10:49J. Kirkland7:02

Pair 1R. Andersson18:16K. Bahl18:08

Pair 2M. Weegar17:19Y. Kuznetsov18:56

Pair 3J. Hanley11:29H. Brzustewicz10:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.1, CGY 2.9	EDM 2, CGY 3
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	EDM 28.4, CGY 29.3	EDM 31, CGY 32
Win chance	EDM 52%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	7	1.46	1	36%	1
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	3	0.85	0	29%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	6	0.79	1	36%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	2	1.27	1	40%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	4	0.86	2	15%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	3	0.54	1	23%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	0	0.54	0	22%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.2	6	0.52	1	19%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	3	0.80	1	24%	0
CGY R. Andersson	2.0	1	0.51	0	12%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.0	1	0.54	0	20%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.9	4	0.44	0	19%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.9	4	0.54	1	24%	1
EDM D. Nurse	1.8	4	0.34	0	8%	0
CGY M. Weegar	1.8	0	0.41	0	9%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.8	2	0.51	0	17%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.7	1	0.75	0	23%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.7	1	0.39	0	8%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.6	0	0.46	0	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	1	0.38	0	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	1	0.31	0	16%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.4	0	0.29	0	15%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.2	3	0.30	1	14%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.1	0	0.14	0	4%	0
EDM M. Jones	1.0	0	0.18	0	7%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	2	0.16	1	8%	1
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.0	0	0.28	0	13%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	0	0.19	0	11%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	0	0.21	1	5%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	0	0.20	0	3%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	0.9	2	0.26	0	7%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.8	1	0.12	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.23	0	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.6	0	0.25	0	8%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.