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Game Recap
EDM3
FinalWed, Feb 4, 2026Every game that night
CGY4

CGY beat EDM 4-3, with the chances close: 4.02 expected goals to 3.53. EDM outshot CGY 39 to 25. E. Bouchard led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). C. McDavid had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. D. Cooley stopped 36 of 39.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM1113
CGY2114
  1. 1st 3:12CGYJ. HuberdeauPP0.10 xG
  2. 1st 5:14EDML. DraisaitlPP0.15 xG
  3. 1st 14:44CGYM. GridinPP0.12 xG
  4. 2nd 11:43CGYC. Zary0.13 xG
  5. 2nd 18:26EDML. DraisaitlPP0.16 xG
  6. 3rd 4:17EDMK. Kapanen0.04 xG
  7. 3rd 6:44CGYR. Lomberg0.31 xG

Team Stats

EDMCGY
39Shots on goal25
3.53Expected goals4.02
60Shot attempts63
265v5 shots on goal19
2/4Power play2/3
6Hits19
11Blocked shots13
13Penalty minutes15
7Giveaways19
4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.53 xGCGY 4.02 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdCGY goal, 3:12EDM goal, 5:14CGY goal, 14:44CGY goal, 11:43EDM goal, 18:26EDM goal, 4:17CGY goal, 6:44

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM39 on goal, 3 scored
CGY24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. DraisaitlC202500+1025:277:01
C. McDavidC0118000026:307:00
R. Nugent-HopkinsC011200-1222:507:00
V. PodkolzinRW011100+1016:350:12
K. KapanenRW101400+1015:390:11
Z. HymanLW000200-1023:417:02
J. RoslovicC0002000014:120:13
M. SavoieC0002010010:520:00
J. SamanskiC000020-109:230:00
A. MangiapaneLW000010-107:390:00
M. JanmarkC000000-125:320:00
C. LazarC000100-104:240:00
E. BouchardD033202+1226:257:02
D. NurseD000523-1021:500:00
M. EkholmD000302+1021:120:11
J. WalmanD0001020018:020:13
T. EmbersonD000011-1512:500:00
S. StastneyD000100-2212:330:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
T. Jarry25214.84058:32Loss
C. Ingram000–0:00

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. KadriC022200+1018:022:31
M. GridinRW1123010012:392:29
C. ZaryC1011000015:531:21
J. HuberdeauLW1013200015:392:32
R. LombergLW101140+127:480:00
M. BacklundC0002000021:051:19
Y. SharangovichC0002100019:561:20
J. FarabeeLW0001000017:440:00
M. CoronatoRW0003000216:362:33
M. FrostC0000200012:291:23
A. KlapkaRW000030+109:530:00
M. PospisilC000300026:450:00
Z. WhitecloudD022112+2024:370:00
M. WeegarD0222420222:142:22
K. BahlD000003+1026:360:00
Y. KuznetsovD000124+1021:330:00
Z. ParekhD000000-1012:181:30
J. HanleyD000001-179:040:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Cooley39363.92359:56Win
D. Wolf000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman14:36C. McDavid14:19R. Nugent-Hopkins13:16
Line 2L. Draisaitl15:38K. Kapanen14:44V. Podkolzin15:38
Line 3A. Mangiapane7:35J. Roslovic13:50M. Savoie8:53
Line 4M. Janmark4:31C. Lazar3:54J. Samanski9:23
Pair 1D. Nurse20:08J. Walman17:02
Pair 2M. Ekholm16:01E. Bouchard14:43
Pair 3T. Emberson11:31S. Stastney11:13

CGY

Line 1C. Zary14:32N. Kadri15:01J. Farabee12:35
Line 2M. Backlund13:42M. Coronato12:35Y. Sharangovich12:29
Line 3M. Gridin10:10J. Huberdeau10:38M. Frost10:01
Line 4A. Klapka9:49R. Lomberg7:44M. Pospisil6:41
Pair 1K. Bahl18:47Z. Whitecloud17:58
Pair 2M. Weegar16:44Y. Kuznetsov18:13
Pair 3J. Hanley8:28Z. Parekh10:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.3, CGY 3.2EDM 3, CGY 4
Total goals6.57
Shots on goalEDM 29.4, CGY 29.3EDM 39, CGY 25
Win chanceEDM 51%CGY won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.581.48137%0
EDM Z. Hyman2.920.77035%0
EDM L. Draisaitl2.851.27240%2
CGY N. Kadri2.820.80228%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.720.87316%0
CGY M. Backlund2.520.62021%0
CGY M. Coronato2.430.59024%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich2.120.57026%0
CGY M. Weegar1.920.52211%0
EDM D. Nurse1.950.3008%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins1.820.74122%0
EDM J. Walman1.810.3709%0
CGY M. Gridin1.830.42217%1
EDM J. Roslovic1.720.43018%0
CGY J. Farabee1.710.42019%0
CGY C. Zary1.710.48119%1
CGY M. Frost1.600.48017%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.630.4009%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.640.36113%1
CGY J. Huberdeau1.630.65121%1
EDM V. Podkolzin1.410.35114%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.230.2708%0
EDM M. Savoie1.220.25012%0
CGY A. Klapka1.200.31014%0
CGY R. Lomberg1.010.1919%1
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.010.2208%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud1.010.2427%0
CGY K. Bahl0.900.2906%0
CGY Z. Parekh0.900.2206%0
EDM A. Mangiapane0.800.22011%0
EDM S. Stastney0.710.1403%0
EDM C. Lazar0.610.1507%0
EDM T. Emberson0.600.1803%0
EDM M. Janmark0.600.1807%0
CGY J. Hanley0.500.1402%0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.