Game Recap: EDM 4, CHI 3, January 11, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM4

FinalSat, Jan 11, 2025Every game that night

CHI3

EDM beat CHI 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.35 expected goals to 2.06. EDM outshot CHI 34 to 22. N. Foligno led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Crevier had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. C. Pickard stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	3	1	4
CHI	2	1	0	3

1st 4:45CHIT. Teravainen0.11 xG
1st 15:01CHIN. Foligno0.10 xG
2nd 0:22EDMV. Podkolzin0.25 xG
2nd 10:03CHIR. Donato0.17 xG
2nd 15:49EDMA. Henrique0.07 xG
2nd 17:30EDMC. Perry0.15 xG
3rd 7:18EDMZ. HymanPP0.22 xG

Team Stats

EDMCHI

34Shots on goal22

4.35Expected goals2.06

63Shot attempts44

315v5 shots on goal18

1/1Power play0/1

18Hits27

13Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways9

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 4.35 xGCHI 2.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM34 on goal, 4 scored

CHI21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	21:38	1:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	1	2	3	2	2	+2	0	14:34	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	4	3	0	-2	0	19:06	1:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	16:16	0:00
A. Henrique	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	12:13	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	11:28	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	10:22	0:00
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	21:50	1:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	4	1	2	-2	0	19:17	1:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:33	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:07	0:00
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:00	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	4	2	1	0	0	23:42	1:00
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	15:36	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	21:58	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	21:24	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	19:33	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	16:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	22	19	3	.864	59:43	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Foligno	LW	1	1	2	4	7	0	+2	0	18:49	0:53
T. Teravainen	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	17:48	0:53
J. Dickinson	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	17:20	0:00
R. Donato	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	15:22	0:53
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	12:17	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	21:24	0:53
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	19:06	0:53
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:09	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:54	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:06	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	9:08	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:59	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	-1	0	18:56	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	2	14:00	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	24:54	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	23:09	0:53
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	4	2	3	+1	2	20:48	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	34	30	4	.882	57:48	Loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJason Dickinson EDM First game back in Chicago, his team until Mar 20261 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 4.0, CHI 2.3	EDM 4, CHI 3
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	EDM 33.2, CHI 23.9	EDM 34, CHI 22
Win chance	EDM 74%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.4	1	1.83	0	43%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.2	1	1.55	2	48%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	4	0.88	1	40%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	4	0.95	1	16%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.6	3	0.66	1	23%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.3	2	0.47	0	10%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.3	0	0.77	0	23%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.1	0	0.55	0	12%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	4	0.85	0	26%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.0	4	0.42	1	18%	1
CHI S. Jones	1.9	0	0.43	0	9%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	1	0.55	0	24%	0
CHI T. Hall	1.7	2	0.50	1	19%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	1	0.38	0	19%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	3	0.34	2	14%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.5	4	0.37	0	7%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	1	0.48	1	22%	1
CHI N. Foligno	1.4	4	0.41	2	17%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	1	0.53	2	19%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.4	1	0.40	0	12%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	2	0.35	1	17%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.2	0	0.27	0	4%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	0	0.26	0	10%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	0	0.30	1	12%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.1	3	0.35	1	16%	1
CHI F. Nazar	1.0	0	0.26	0	13%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.0	1	0.22	1	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	0	0.33	0	11%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	1	0.22	0	8%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	1	0.16	0	4%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	4	0.13	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	2	0.21	1	2%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.7	0	0.18	0	9%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	0	0.21	0	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.4	1	0.19	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.