Game Recap: EDM 4, CHI 3 (OT), February 5, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM4

Final/OTWed, Feb 5, 2025Every game that night

CHI3

EDM beat CHI 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.18 expected goals to 3.13. R. Donato led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Nurse had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. C. Pickard stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	0	1	2	1	4
CHI	0	1	2	0	3

2nd 8:51EDMV. Arvidsson0.02 xG
2nd 19:54CHIL. Reichel0.46 xG
3rd 1:11EDMJ. Skinner0.15 xG
3rd 8:18EDML. Draisaitl0.13 xG
3rd 12:12CHIR. DonatoPP0.11 xG
3rd 16:16CHIA. Martinez0.12 xG
OT 1:36EDMZ. HymanPP0.25 xG

Team Stats

EDMCHI

38Shots on goal32

3.18Expected goals3.13

55Shot attempts63

335v5 shots on goal26

1/4Power play1/1

7Hits18

17Blocked shots8

2Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways16

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.18 xGCHI 3.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM37 on goal, 4 scored

CHI30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	22:22	4:05
J. Skinner	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	15:27	1:57
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	21:46	4:32
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	19:06	4:17
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	16:06	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	2	14:51	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	13:56	0:02
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:48	3:57
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	13:32	1:46
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:13	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:11	2:03
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	9:46	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	24:10	4:25
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	16:00	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	6	2	4	-1	0	25:14	2:11
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	20:13	1:55
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+3	0	17:01	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:17	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	32	29	3	.906	61:36	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Teravainen	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	0	17:58	1:07
R. Donato	C	1	1	2	4	2	0	0	0	17:24	1:07
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	4	20:58	1:07
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	16:51	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	13:36	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	16:48	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	16:33	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	14:59	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:46	1:07
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	11:31	0:00
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:02	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	7:05	0:00
A. Martinez	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	21:01	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	25:17	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	-3	0	25:05	1:07
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	21:32	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:13	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	38	34	4	.895	61:19	OT loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJason Dickinson EDM First game back in Chicago, his team until Mar 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.5, CHI 2.4	EDM 4, CHI 3
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	EDM 34.0, CHI 24.1	EDM 38, CHI 32
Win chance	EDM 67%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.7	3	1.55	2	48%	1
EDM C. McDavid	3.7	2	1.76	1	43%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.4	2	0.84	1	39%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	3	0.91	1	15%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.6	3	0.88	1	27%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.5	4	0.59	1	21%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.3	6	0.42	0	9%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.2	2	0.49	0	10%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	1	0.81	0	25%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.1	4	0.49	2	20%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	1	0.61	0	26%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.0	3	0.46	2	21%	1
CHI S. Jones	1.9	3	0.49	0	11%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.7	0	0.29	0	14%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.7	3	0.65	2	22%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	2	0.35	1	18%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.5	1	0.41	0	19%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.5	3	0.31	1	6%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	2	0.45	0	21%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	0	0.29	1	12%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.4	1	0.34	0	11%	0
EDM J. Klingberg	1.4	1	0.45	0	7%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.4	3	0.39	0	17%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.3	1	0.32	0	14%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	0	0.39	0	15%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.2	1	0.25	0	5%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	2	0.34	0	16%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	2	0.29	1	11%	1
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	3	0.28	0	11%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.1	3	0.24	1	7%	1
CHI P. Maroon	0.9	4	0.23	0	8%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	1	0.29	1	10%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.21	0	2%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.7	0	0.21	0	5%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	0	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.