Game Recap: EDM 4, CHI 1, January 12, 2026

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Game Recap

EDM4

FinalMon, Jan 12, 2026Every game that night

CHI1

EDM beat CHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.43 expected goals to 3.40. E. Bouchard led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Lazar had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.6. C. Ingram stopped 29 of 30.

Team Stats

EDMCHI

37Shots on goal30

4.43Expected goals3.40

62Shot attempts62

365v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play0/2

13Hits20

16Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways16

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 4.43 xGCHI 3.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM36 on goal, 3 scored

CHI29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+3	0	21:18	3:30
Z. Hyman	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+3	0	19:28	3:04
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:11	3:29
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	18:39	3:05
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	15:12	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:01	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:23	0:57
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:06	0:30
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:41	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	11:26	0:54
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	9:28	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	7:05	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	2	1	3	4	0	1	+3	0	24:31	3:44
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	1	5	-1	0	21:22	0:16
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+3	2	20:37	0:31
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:40	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	+1	2	16:16	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	20:28	2:56
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	20:35	2:57
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	18:42	0:00
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	17:47	1:44
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	16:24	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:12	1:03
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:36	2:42
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	14:02	0:00
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	12:52	1:19
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:40	2:15
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:47	1:04
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:27	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	19:07	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	3	6	1	0	0	24:33	3:04
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	0	19:34	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:59	0:56
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	17:41	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	36	33	3	.917	59:25	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman15:49C. McDavid16:01R. Nugent-Hopkins13:42

Line 2L. Draisaitl17:36K. Kapanen14:29V. Podkolzin14:19

Line 3J. Roslovic13:26M. Savoie11:48A. Mangiapane10:32

Line 4M. Janmark9:45T. Frederic9:28C. Lazar6:48

Pair 1M. Ekholm17:59E. Bouchard18:14

Pair 2D. Nurse20:12T. Emberson17:38

Pair 3A. Regula14:36S. Stastney14:43

CHI

Line 1J. Dickinson14:22I. Mikheyev16:08L. Slaggert12:37

Line 2A. Burakovsky17:03R. Greene15:00T. Bertuzzi16:57

Line 3N. Lardis10:58O. Moore13:39T. Teravainen5:27

Line 4N. Foligno9:43R. Donato12:54C. Dach9:25

Pair 1A. Vlasic16:54L. Crevier16:19

Pair 2W. Kaiser17:50A. Levshunov20:54

Pair 3C. Murphy14:27M. Grzelcyk16:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAndrew Mangiapane CHI First game against EDM since he left (his team until Feb 2026)0 SOG
Old teamJason Dickinson EDM First game back in Chicago, his team until Mar 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.5, CHI 3.0	EDM 4, CHI 1
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	EDM 29.6, CHI 25.5	EDM 37, CHI 30
Win chance	EDM 58%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.7	2	1.67	2	41%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	3	0.87	2	39%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.0	1	1.42	1	44%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	4	1.07	3	21%	2
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	3	0.86	1	25%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	3	0.40	0	11%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	4	0.67	1	27%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	0	0.51	0	11%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.8	2	0.49	0	20%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	1	0.46	0	22%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.8	2	0.54	0	22%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.6	4	0.67	0	20%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.6	1	0.43	0	15%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.6	3	0.31	0	16%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	1	0.42	0	17%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.4	3	0.36	0	13%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.3	3	0.47	0	5%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	0	0.62	0	21%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.3	0	0.26	0	7%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	1	0.38	0	12%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	2	0.33	0	15%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.2	0	0.40	0	14%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.1	2	0.27	0	13%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	2	0.20	1	6%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.0	1	0.23	0	10%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.0	2	0.22	0	9%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	4	0.21	0	4%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	0.9	0	0.27	0	13%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.9	0	0.29	0	2%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.8	4	0.22	0	4%	0
EDM T. Frederic	0.8	3	0.18	0	10%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.22	0	8%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.7	2	0.11	0	3%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.21	0	4%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	4	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.