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Game Recap
EDM4
COL1
EDM beat COL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.31 expected goals to 2.37. R. Nugent-Hopkins led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. MacKinnon had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 4.2. S. Skinner stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 7:02COLN. KovalenkoPP0.12 xG
- 1st 11:48EDMK. Kapanen0.17 xG
- 2nd 13:48EDMV. Podkolzin0.08 xG
- 3rd 3:56EDMB. Kulak0.01 xG
- 3rd 18:28EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsEN0.89 xG
Team Stats
EDMCOL
32Shots on goal28
4.31Expected goals2.37
56Shot attempts56
255v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play1/5
9Hits16
15Blocked shots9
14Penalty minutes8
2Giveaways11
3Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 4.31 xGCOL 2.37 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:51 | 2:49 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:21 | 3:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 15:45 | 0:35 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 15:27 | 0:18 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:32 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:06 | 3:03 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:43 | 2:48 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Caggiula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 21:02 | 2:58 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:09 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 22:57 | 0:14 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 3:07 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:53 | 1:20 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:44 | 7:37 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:29 | 7:31 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 22:03 | 7:37 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:32 | 5:48 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:47 | 1:10 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Prishchepov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 5:36 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:36 | 1:34 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:42 | 6:33 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:45 | 2:23 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Ludvig | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 58:23 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.3, COL 3.2 | EDM 4, COL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 29.0, COL 28.7 | EDM 32, COL 28 |
| Win chance | EDM 50% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.2 | 7 | 1.52 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.2 | 4 | 1.63 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.8 | 1 | 1.20 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 4 | 1.34 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.5 | 5 | 1.09 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.5 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.3 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.2 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.1 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.9 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 4 | 0.80 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 1.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.7 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.5 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 4 | 0.49 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.0 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| COL N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| COL C. Wagner | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM D. Caggiula | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL J. Ludvig | 0.6 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL N. Prishchepov | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.