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Game Recap
EDM4
COL3
EDM beat COL 4-3, with the chances close: 3.34 expected goals to 2.67. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Hyman had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. S. Skinner stopped 22 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 5:17COLL. O'Connor0.17 xG
- 1st 10:04COLN. MacKinnon0.08 xG
- 1st 11:48COLN. MacKinnon0.23 xG
- 1st 19:18EDMV. Arvidsson0.03 xG
- 2nd 6:17EDMB. Kulak0.04 xG
- 2nd 14:49EDMC. McDavid0.17 xG
- 3rd 13:05EDME. Bouchard0.05 xG
Team Stats
EDMCOL
28Shots on goal25
3.34Expected goals2.67
64Shot attempts55
205v5 shots on goal17
0/4Power play0/2
11Hits14
11Blocked shots19
4Penalty minutes8
9Giveaways13
7Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 3.34 xGCOL 2.67 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:31 | 6:35 |
| C. McDavid | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:17 | 6:38 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:46 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:18 | 6:29 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 6:08 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:17 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:40 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:56 | 0:21 |
| N. Philp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 7:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:24 | 6:28 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22:26 | 1:14 |
| B. Kulak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:03 | 0:01 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:33 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:12 | 2:45 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:31 | 2:45 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 2:35 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:35 | 2:17 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:29 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:39 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 8:51 | 0:57 |
| J. Polin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Innala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:52 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:46 | 0:57 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 26:06 | 2:17 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:29 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:05 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 58:07 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.1, COL 3.3 | EDM 4, COL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 29.0, COL 29.2 | EDM 28, COL 25 |
| Win chance | COL 54% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.1 | 3 | 1.50 | 2 | 40% | 2 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.0 | 2 | 1.48 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.9 | 0 | 1.24 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.8 | 3 | 1.26 | 2 | 41% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.7 | 4 | 1.06 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.7 | 7 | 0.71 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.3 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.2 | 5 | 0.71 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.9 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.7 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.2 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| COL J. Parssinen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL J. Polin | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL J. Innala | 0.4 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.