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Game Recap
EDM4
FinalTue, Mar 10, 2026Every game that night
COL3

EDM beat COL 4-3, with the chances close: 3.44 expected goals to 2.76. R. Nugent-Hopkins led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Jarry stopped 11 of 12.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM2114
COL2013
  1. 1st 0:32COLR. Colton0.02 xG
  2. 1st 8:13EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.20 xG
  3. 1st 15:41COLM. NecasPP0.09 xG
  4. 1st 19:35EDMJ. Roslovic0.23 xG
  5. 2nd 4:15EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.09 xG
  6. 3rd 7:04COLV. Nichushkin0.06 xG
  7. 3rd 9:03EDMC. McDavidPP0.19 xG

Team Stats

EDMCOL
24Shots on goal30
3.44Expected goals2.76
44Shot attempts71
135v5 shots on goal19
2/4Power play1/3
22Hits11
22Blocked shots8
11Penalty minutes26
21Giveaways15
6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.44 xGCOL 2.76 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdCOL goal, 0:32EDM goal, 8:13COL goal, 15:41EDM goal, 19:35EDM goal, 4:15COL goal, 7:04EDM goal, 9:03

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM22 on goal, 4 scored
COL30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC112500+1023:575:50
L. DraisaitlC022520-1022:515:50
R. Nugent-HopkinsC202200+1019:175:42
Z. HymanLW011001+1021:025:44
J. RoslovicC101301-1015:221:29
J. DickinsonC0002410017:140:07
M. SavoieC0000110015:361:33
K. KapanenRW0000010213:330:07
V. PodkolzinRW000141-1013:161:40
T. FredericC000140058:490:00
J. SamanskiC000010008:100:00
C. DachC000010001:350:00
E. BouchardD022402+2027:216:06
D. NurseD011121+1019:000:22
M. EkholmD0000020022:221:21
C. MurphyD000014-1421:420:17
J. WalmanD000007-1018:211:07
T. EmbersonD000020-105:350:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ingram18162.88939:07
T. Jarry12111.91720:26Win

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. NecasC101410-2022:524:11
B. NelsonC011300+2222:253:37
V. NichushkinRW101300+2018:581:11
R. ColtonC101120008:150:00
N. KadriC000111-1022:063:38
N. MacKinnonC000100-11514:172:29
J. KivirantaLW0003100014:130:52
J. DruryC0000100013:450:14
P. KellyC0000300013:300:00
N. RoyC000301-1711:300:35
Z. BardakovC000100+109:360:00
G. BrindleyC000010008:150:18
S. MalinskiD011403+1016:040:00
C. MakarD000201-1026:583:35
D. ToewsD0002000021:550:54
B. BurnsD000000-1016:590:51
J. MansonD0000120016:060:00
B. KulakD000200+1216:040:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. Blackwood24204.83357:50Loss
S. Wedgewood000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1J. Dickinson14:19K. Kapanen12:32M. Savoie12:59
Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins11:18C. McDavid12:07Z. Hyman12:50
Line 3L. Draisaitl13:47J. Roslovic13:44V. Podkolzin11:27
Line 4T. Frederic8:49J. Samanski8:10
Pair 1C. Murphy20:25J. Walman16:26
Pair 2M. Ekholm14:50E. Bouchard15:01
Pair 3D. Nurse16:56T. Emberson5:25

COL

Line 1N. Kadri15:53M. Necas16:06N. MacKinnon11:30
Line 2B. Nelson13:20V. Nichushkin11:36R. Colton8:15
Line 3N. Roy9:02P. Kelly10:19G. Brindley6:12
Line 4J. Kiviranta11:38Z. Bardakov9:36J. Drury10:18
Pair 1D. Toews17:25C. Makar17:49
Pair 2S. Malinski13:58B. Kulak14:03
Pair 3B. Burns12:54J. Manson12:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.1, COL 3.9EDM 4, COL 3
Total goals6.97
Shots on goalEDM 27.6, COL 32.5EDM 24, COL 30
Win chanceCOL 62%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon4.611.70044%0
EDM C. McDavid3.351.34235%1
COL M. Necas3.041.28135%1
COL N. Kadri3.010.84029%0
EDM Z. Hyman2.900.73135%0
COL B. Nelson2.731.03139%0
EDM L. Draisaitl2.751.14238%0
COL C. Makar2.521.12026%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.340.81214%0
COL V. Nichushkin2.230.72130%1
COL R. Colton2.110.44118%1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins1.920.66221%2
EDM D. Nurse1.710.2917%0
EDM J. Roslovic1.730.38117%1
COL S. Malinski1.740.3616%0
COL B. Burns1.600.40010%0
COL D. Toews1.620.53011%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.600.33013%0
EDM J. Walman1.600.3409%0
EDM M. Savoie1.400.33013%0
COL P. Kelly1.400.37016%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.410.32014%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.400.3807%0
COL J. Manson1.300.3607%0
COL J. Drury1.300.36013%0
COL N. Roy1.030.38014%0
EDM J. Dickinson1.020.25013%0
COL G. Brindley1.000.24011%0
COL B. Kulak1.020.2305%0
COL J. Kiviranta1.030.24011%0
EDM T. Frederic1.010.17011%0
EDM C. Murphy1.000.2005%0
EDM C. Dach0.600.1305%0
EDM T. Emberson0.600.1603%0
EDM J. Samanski0.500.2107%0
COL Z. Bardakov0.510.1905%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.