Game Recap: EDM 3, DET 2 (OT), October 27, 2024

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Game Recap

EDM3

Final/OTSun, Oct 27, 2024Every game that night

DET2

EDM beat DET 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.58 expected goals to 2.24. EDM outshot DET 34 to 26. L. Draisaitl led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Draisaitl had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. C. Pickard stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	0	1	1	1	3
DET	1	1	0	0	2

1st 3:28DETJ. Compher0.12 xG
2nd 8:46EDML. Draisaitl0.06 xG
2nd 9:28DETA. Copp0.09 xG
3rd 10:47EDME. Bouchard0.02 xG
OT 0:18EDML. Draisaitl0.21 xG

Team Stats

EDMDET

34Shots on goal26

2.58Expected goals2.24

69Shot attempts50

325v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/1

11Hits23

14Blocked shots20

7Penalty minutes9

17Giveaways11

1Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.58 xGDET 2.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM33 on goal, 3 scored

DET25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	2	1	3	7	0	1	+1	0	21:10	3:15
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	4	1	0	+3	0	22:49	3:03
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	19:03	2:12
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:31	2:17
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	16:45	1:52
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	15:00	1:40
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:55	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:39	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:44	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	11:26	0:44
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	11:25	0:00
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:14	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	1	2	3	0	4	+3	0	25:13	3:19
M. Ekholm	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+3	0	23:49	0:48
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	21:45	0:41
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:04	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	14:14	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	12:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	26	24	2	.923	60:14	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Copp	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	2	16:44	1:04
P. Kane	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	15:23	1:03
J. Compher	LW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	18:08	0:56
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	2	18:39	1:12
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:59	1:06
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:13	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	14:06	0:52
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	13:56	0:48
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	12:49	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	12:34	0:52
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:32	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	11:21	0:02
J. Petry	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	+2	0	18:06	0:50
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-2	0	24:56	1:10
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	-1	0	24:40	0:05
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	18:28	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:32	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	15:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	34	31	3	.912	60:18	OT loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamViktor Arvidsson DET Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20252 SOG
BirthdayLeon Draisaitl EDM Turns 29 that day2 G, 1 A, 7 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 4.0, DET 2.8	EDM 3, DET 2
Total goals	6.8	5
Shots on goal	EDM 33.9, DET 25.5	EDM 34, DET 26
Win chance	EDM 66%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.6	4	1.74	2	42%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.5	2	0.90	0	40%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.0	4	0.94	0	34%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.9	2	0.74	0	24%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	7	1.37	3	43%	2
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	3	1.03	2	19%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	2.7	2	0.74	0	27%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.6	5	0.68	0	28%	0
DET P. Kane	2.4	1	0.74	2	23%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.3	1	0.57	2	13%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	2	0.92	0	25%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.0	0	0.79	0	26%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	1	0.39	0	11%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.8	0	0.53	0	22%	0
DET M. Seider	1.5	1	0.50	0	8%	0
DET J. Compher	1.4	1	0.49	1	18%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.4	3	0.30	0	11%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	1	0.48	0	22%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.3	4	0.35	0	15%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.3	1	0.30	0	6%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	0	0.31	0	15%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	0	0.36	0	14%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	0	0.23	0	11%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.1	1	0.24	0	6%	0
EDM T. Emberson	1.1	1	0.26	0	4%	0
DET A. Copp	1.0	2	0.36	2	13%	1
DET M. Kasper	1.0	2	0.33	0	14%	0
EDM T. Stecher	1.0	1	0.17	0	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	1.0	0	0.29	0	11%	0
DET C. Fischer	0.9	2	0.23	0	9%	0
DET J. Petry	0.9	0	0.30	1	5%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.23	0	10%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.8	0	0.16	0	9%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	0.7	3	0.27	0	9%	0
DET O. Maatta	0.5	2	0.19	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.