Game Recap: EDM 2, DET 4, October 19, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM2

FinalSun, Oct 19, 2025Every game that night

DET4

DET beat EDM 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.89 expected goals to 1.89. D. Larkin led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). J. Gibson stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	1	1	2
DET	0	3	1	4

2nd 8:51DETD. Larkin0.05 xG
2nd 11:54DETE. Finnie0.50 xG
2nd 12:25EDMN. Philp0.08 xG
2nd 17:05DETD. Larkin0.01 xG
3rd 7:33EDML. Draisaitl0.22 xG
3rd 18:38DETE. FinnieEN0.62 xG

Team Stats

EDMDET

18Shots on goal25

1.89Expected goals2.89

44Shot attempts58

165v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play0/0

19Hits24

21Blocked shots11

0Penalty minutes2

19Giveaways16

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 1.89 xGDET 2.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM18 on goal, 2 scored

DET23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	20:33	1:57
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	0	5	0	+1	17:11	0:00
N. Philp	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	12:26	0:00
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	22:04	1:59
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	18:51	0:47
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	17:42	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	15:42	1:13
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:47	1:17
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	13:51	0:43
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	12:00	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	11:21	0:01
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	5:43	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	19:13	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	-3	19:59	0:05
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-2	23:07	1:55
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	2	5	-2	21:15	0:03
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	18:31	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	24	21	3	.875	59:44	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	2	2	4	2	0	0	+3	0	19:11	0:00
E. Finnie	C	2	1	3	4	4	0	+3	0	19:25	0:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	17:20	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:58	0:00
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	15:12	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:56	0:00
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:11	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:59	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	11:48	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:44	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	11:36	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:22	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	23:01	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	15:14	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	5	0	+1	0	23:45	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	+1	0	23:03	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	19:37	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	18	16	2	.889	60:00	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl18:20C. McDavid19:49A. Mangiapane17:42

Line 2J. Roslovic18:04R. Nugent-Hopkins14:13V. Podkolzin16:55

Line 3A. Henrique13:08I. Howard12:00M. Savoie13:30

Line 4T. Frederic11:20N. Philp12:26K. Kapanen5:43

Pair 1M. Ekholm19:38E. Bouchard21:12

Pair 2B. Kulak19:13T. Emberson18:31

Pair 3D. Nurse20:56T. Stecher16:00

DET

Line 1D. Larkin18:47E. Finnie19:06L. Raymond17:04

Line 2M. Kasper16:01A. DeBrincat15:12M. Brandsegg-Nygård14:11

Line 3J. Compher13:01M. Appleton13:56J. Berggren11:48

Line 4J. Riemsdyk11:22M. Rasmussen10:50A. Copp11:36

Pair 1B. Chiarot21:44M. Seider22:26

Pair 2S. Edvinsson22:06A. Sandin-Pellikka18:40

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker15:12A. Johansson15:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.3, DET 3.3	EDM 2, DET 4
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	EDM 28.8, DET 27.7	EDM 18, DET 25
Win chance	DET 51%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.2	2	1.59	0	38%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	3.0	3	0.90	0	18%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	5	0.85	0	31%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.0	1	1.36	1	44%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.8	2	0.94	4	33%	2
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	0	0.79	0	25%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	3	0.36	0	8%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.9	0	0.52	0	22%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	2	0.42	1	10%	0
DET L. Raymond	1.8	0	0.71	2	23%	0
DET M. Seider	1.7	2	0.49	0	9%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.7	1	0.28	0	14%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.6	4	0.41	3	15%	2
EDM J. Roslovic	1.5	0	0.43	0	16%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.4	2	0.50	0	18%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.4	1	0.35	0	13%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.3	1	0.21	0	11%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	1	0.48	0	18%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.3	1	0.27	0	9%	0
DET A. Copp	1.3	2	0.45	0	16%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.3	0	0.25	2	6%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.3	0	0.30	0	12%	0
EDM N. Philp	1.2	1	0.20	1	9%	1
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	0	0.20	1	7%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.2	0	0.28	0	14%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.2	0	0.37	0	17%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.1	1	0.34	0	17%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	0	0.30	0	13%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	0	0.28	1	11%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.1	1	0.34	0	16%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.0	2	0.34	0	10%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	0	0.11	0	4%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	0	0.14	0	5%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	2	0.17	0	3%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	1	0.13	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.