Game Recap: EDM 6, FLA 3, November 22, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM6

FinalSat, Nov 22, 2025Every game that night

FLA3

EDM beat FLA 6-3, with the chances close: 4.77 expected goals to 4.22. M. Ekholm led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Janmark had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.5. S. Skinner stopped 35 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	3	1	2	6
FLA	1	2	0	3

1st 0:25EDMJ. Roslovic0.02 xG
1st 6:30FLAA. Lundell0.26 xG
1st 7:06EDMJ. Roslovic0.12 xG
1st 13:58EDMM. Ekholm0.22 xG
2nd 6:45EDMV. Podkolzin0.03 xG
2nd 10:04FLAM. Samoskevich0.10 xG
2nd 13:30FLAS. ReinhartPP0.27 xG
3rd 17:20EDMC. McDavidEN0.89 xG
3rd 17:47EDMM. SavoieEN0.67 xG

Team Stats

EDMFLA

31Shots on goal38

4.77Expected goals4.22

61Shot attempts82

265v5 shots on goal28

0/2Power play1/4

20Hits30

13Blocked shots10

24Penalty minutes20

13Giveaways14

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 4.77 xGFLA 4.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM30 on goal, 6 scored

FLA38 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Roslovic	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	0	16:24	3:29
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	22:27	3:14
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:48	3:09
A. Henrique	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	18:18	0:41
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	+2	0	15:50	0:00
M. Savoie	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	13:47	0:31
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	4	11:54	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	19:00	3:22
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:56	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	12	11:21	0:00
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	5:53	0:50
C. Clattenburg	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	5:47	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	3	3	1	0	1	+5	0	22:12	2:56
M. Ekholm	D	1	2	3	3	2	0	+5	0	20:37	0:44
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	18:33	1:04
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	19:55	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	4	4	-1	0	19:18	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	38	35	3	.921	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lundell	C	1	1	2	5	1	1	-4	0	18:33	3:08
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	1	2	4	5	0	-1	0	16:41	1:51
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	-3	0	18:45	3:10
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-3	0	17:52	3:10
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	3	3	0	-1	0	17:00	1:52
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:11	3:12
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:52	1:50
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:57	1:51
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	14	12:44	0:00
J. Devine	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	9:47	0:37
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:03	0:37
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	8:25	0:37
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	-3	0	23:13	3:18
U. Balinskis	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	2	19:01	1:43
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	2	21:50	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:35	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	15:04	0:37
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	2	12:54	0:37

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	17	13	4	.765	26:45	Loss
D. Tarasov	12	12	0	1.000	32:48

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1V. Podkolzin14:06L. Draisaitl16:01A. Mangiapane13:56

Line 2A. Henrique14:49Z. Hyman14:51T. Frederic11:21

Line 3C. McDavid14:39J. Roslovic12:15M. Savoie10:37

Line 4C. Clattenburg5:47D. Tomasek5:03M. Janmark10:10

Pair 1B. Kulak17:32T. Emberson17:14

Pair 2D. Nurse15:51A. Regula15:45

Pair 3M. Ekholm15:04E. Bouchard14:34

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe14:26S. Bennett14:11A. Greer12:39

Line 2A. Lundell12:38M. Samoskevich14:30B. Marchand12:44

Line 3J. Boqvist14:06E. Rodrigues12:52S. Reinhart11:10

Line 4J. Devine9:10N. Gregor8:26L. Kunin7:48

Pair 1S. Jones16:31N. Mikkola18:06

Pair 2G. Forsling17:45U. Balinskis16:50

Pair 3J. Petry13:56D. Sebrango11:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 2.8, FLA 3.2	EDM 6, FLA 3
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	EDM 26.6, FLA 28.3	EDM 31, FLA 38
Win chance	FLA 56%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	1	0.82	3	15%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	2	1.04	1	40%	1
EDM C. McDavid	2.7	3	1.37	1	34%	1
FLA B. Marchand	2.5	4	0.95	1	32%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.5	3	1.20	1	41%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.4	1	0.66	0	32%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.4	3	0.63	1	26%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.4	1	0.76	0	28%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.3	5	0.83	2	24%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.1	2	0.54	0	19%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	3	0.39	3	8%	1
EDM J. Roslovic	1.9	4	0.58	2	22%	2
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	1	0.31	1	7%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.9	4	0.45	2	17%	1
FLA S. Jones	1.6	2	0.50	1	12%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	0	0.38	0	10%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	1	0.38	1	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	2	0.33	1	13%	1
EDM M. Savoie	1.2	2	0.22	1	11%	1
FLA A. Greer	1.1	3	0.27	0	12%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.1	1	0.17	0	8%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.1	2	0.18	0	3%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	0	0.33	0	14%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	2	0.22	0	12%	0
EDM D. Tomasek	1.0	0	0.19	0	9%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	3	0.22	0	5%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.0	0	0.30	0	15%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.8	3	0.15	0	9%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.8	1	0.17	1	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.6	0	0.06	0	3%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.6	1	0.18	0	3%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.6	1	0.20	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.5	4	0.17	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.