Game Recap: EDM 3, LAK 4 (OT), December 28, 2024

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Game Recap

EDM3

Final/OTSat, Dec 28, 2024Every game that night

LAK4

LAK beat EDM 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.04 expected goals to 2.85. Q. Byfield led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). Q. Byfield had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. D. Kuemper stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	1	2	0	0	3
LAK	2	0	1	1	4

1st 9:43EDMK. Kapanen0.44 xG
1st 12:32LAKQ. Byfield0.13 xG
1st 17:35LAKW. Foegele0.12 xG
2nd 3:20EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.13 xG
2nd 11:59EDMV. Arvidsson0.17 xG
3rd 2:32LAKT. Jeannot0.10 xG
OT 3:19LAKQ. Byfield0.08 xG

Team Stats

EDMLAK

27Shots on goal29

2.85Expected goals3.04

55Shot attempts57

235v5 shots on goal21

1/2Power play0/1

13Hits25

11Blocked shots15

2Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways18

7Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.85 xGLAK 3.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM27 on goal, 3 scored

LAK29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	23:27	1:47
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	4	0	2	-1	0	22:24	1:52
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	21:36	1:50
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:03	1:47
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	2	15:59	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	15:57	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	11:52	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-2	0	11:45	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-4	0	12:57	0:25
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:55	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:53	0:22
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:31	0:20
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:47	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	25:02	1:50
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:24	0:22
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	22:47	0:25
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:54	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	29	25	4	.862	63:19	OT loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	2	1	3	5	2	0	+3	0	20:43	1:24
W. Foegele	LW	1	2	3	1	2	2	+2	0	16:37	0:04
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	21:32	1:26
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	18:15	0:29
T. Jeannot	LW	1	0	1	2	6	0	+2	2	15:43	0:00
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:53	1:56
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	2	21:17	0:36
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:30	1:31
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:58	0:27
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	2	7	0	-1	0	8:03	0:00
A. Thomas	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:06	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	16:20	0:28
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	16:15	1:32
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	27:18	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	23:49	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	22:29	0:07
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	12:07	0:00
K. Burroughs	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	3:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	27	24	3	.889	63:05	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCorey Perry LAK Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, LAK 2.9	EDM 3, LAK 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	EDM 27.6, LAK 27.0	EDM 27, LAK 29
Win chance	EDM 53%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	2.9	0	1.49	1	37%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	4	0.87	1	35%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.8	3	0.75	1	36%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.6	1	0.83	0	30%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.5	2	1.23	1	40%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	1	0.54	3	22%	1
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.2	5	0.54	1	20%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.1	3	0.74	0	13%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.1	5	0.53	0	23%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	0	0.36	0	8%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.9	5	0.59	3	19%	2
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	2	0.41	0	10%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.7	1	0.56	1	20%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.7	4	0.68	1	21%	1
EDM J. Skinner	1.6	1	0.39	0	18%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	1	0.40	1	6%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	2	0.81	0	24%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	0	0.41	0	19%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.3	0	0.27	0	6%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	1	0.26	1	11%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.2	2	0.36	0	7%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.2	1	0.37	0	13%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.1	2	0.27	0	6%	0
LAK A. Thomas	1.1	0	0.29	0	13%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.1	1	0.27	1	9%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	3	0.27	1	11%	1
LAK T. Jeannot	1.0	2	0.27	1	14%	1
EDM C. Perry	1.0	1	0.29	0	14%	0
LAK J. Spence	0.9	0	0.28	2	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	1	0.16	1	2%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	2	0.16	0	7%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.6	0	0.26	0	9%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.5	0	0.07	0	2%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.3	0	0.05	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.