Game Recap: EDM 5, LAK 6, April 21, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM5

FinalMon, Apr 21, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

LAK6

LAK beat EDM 6-5, with the chances close: 3.95 expected goals to 3.23. C. McDavid led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). A. Kuzmenko had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. D. Kuemper stopped 20 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	1	4	5
LAK	2	2	2	6

1st 2:49LAKA. KuzmenkoPP0.15 xG
1st 19:27LAKQ. Byfield0.13 xG
2nd 14:47LAKA. Kempe0.19 xG
2nd 17:43LAKP. Danault0.16 xG
2nd 19:54EDML. Draisaitl0.21 xG
3rd 2:19EDMM. Janmark0.58 xG
3rd 4:59LAKK. FialaPP0.17 xG
3rd 7:43EDMC. Perry0.20 xG
3rd 17:56EDMZ. Hyman0.22 xG
3rd 18:32EDMC. McDavid0.11 xG
3rd 19:18LAKP. Danault0.08 xG

Team Stats

EDMLAK

25Shots on goal30

3.23Expected goals3.95

60Shot attempts59

185v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play2/5

42Hits30

14Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways12

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.23 xGLAK 3.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM25 on goal, 5 scored

LAK29 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	3	4	3	5	0	+1	0	23:21	3:50
L. Draisaitl	C	1	1	2	4	2	0	+3	0	22:02	3:46
C. Perry	RW	1	1	2	1	2	0	+4	0	15:10	2:10
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	1	6	0	-1	2	17:56	1:50
J. Skinner	LW	0	1	1	1	5	0	-2	0	11:12	0:10
M. Janmark	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	10:49	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	9:11	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:21	3:45
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:57	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:42	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	11:52	0:14
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:17	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	3	3	4	0	2	+1	0	28:20	3:44
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	2	6	-1	0	25:17	0:16
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	24:58	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	+1	4	19:35	0:15
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:10	0:00
J. Brown	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	4:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	30	24	6	.800	57:32	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	1	2	3	3	2	2	-2	0	22:20	5:07
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	2	3	5	1	0	+1	0	17:09	5:05
Q. Byfield	RW	1	1	2	3	3	0	-1	0	22:53	4:41
P. Danault	C	2	0	2	2	3	0	+1	0	19:12	1:16
K. Fiala	LW	1	1	2	6	3	0	+2	0	19:04	5:09
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	21:29	5:04
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	18:03	1:14
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	17:20	1:10
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	16:09	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	4:13	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	3:47	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	3:45	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	-1	2	26:09	1:15
M. Anderson	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	-1	2	25:44	0:23
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	19:38	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	20:56	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:29	1:16
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	6:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	25	20	5	.800	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCorey Perry LAK Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20251 G, 1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.0, LAK 3.1	EDM 5, LAK 6
Total goals	6.1	11
Shots on goal	EDM 27.8, LAK 27.7	EDM 25, LAK 30
Win chance	LAK 51%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	2.9	6	0.78	2	29%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	3	0.82	3	32%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.7	4	1.07	2	37%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	4	0.72	3	14%	0
EDM C. McDavid	2.5	3	1.20	4	31%	1
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.5	2	0.50	0	21%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	4	0.52	0	22%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.3	2	0.44	0	18%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.3	1	0.52	1	28%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.3	3	0.55	1	22%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.2	3	0.35	0	8%	0
EDM J. Walman	2.1	0	0.36	0	10%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.1	1	0.49	1	23%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.0	3	0.67	2	21%	1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	1	0.62	0	20%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.8	0	0.29	0	6%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.7	0	0.35	0	13%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.6	5	0.71	3	27%	1
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	1	0.38	0	7%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.5	2	0.51	2	17%	2
EDM C. Perry	1.4	1	0.36	2	18%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	1	0.41	0	19%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	0	0.74	1	22%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.3	1	0.48	1	12%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	1	0.24	0	11%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.30	1	7%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.2	0	0.19	0	9%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.1	0	0.34	0	5%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.1	0	0.30	0	10%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	0	0.26	1	6%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	2	0.23	1	12%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	0	0.20	0	3%	0
EDM J. Brown	0.8	0	0.12	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	1	0.24	1	9%	1
LAK S. Helenius	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.