Game Recap: EDM 2, LAK 6, April 23, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM2

FinalWed, Apr 23, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

LAK6

LAK beat EDM 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.47 expected goals to 1.64. A. Kempe led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). A. Kempe had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. D. Kuemper stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	1	1	2
LAK	1	2	3	6

1st 8:44LAKB. ClarkePP0.21 xG
2nd 4:14LAKQ. Byfield0.13 xG
2nd 10:37LAKA. KuzmenkoPP0.16 xG
2nd 13:54EDML. Draisaitl0.08 xG
3rd 4:05EDMV. Arvidsson0.08 xG
3rd 6:46LAKA. Kempe0.16 xG
3rd 9:07LAKA. KopitarPP0.06 xG
3rd 11:09LAKA. Kempe0.08 xG

Team Stats

EDMLAK

26Shots on goal31

1.64Expected goals3.47

50Shot attempts60

205v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play3/5

36Hits24

15Blocked shots10

20Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways8

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 1.64 xGLAK 3.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM26 on goal, 2 scored

LAK30 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	19:03	4:48
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	13:04	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	10	9:23	0:00
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	20:17	4:42
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:27	3:48
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	17:13	3:01
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	8	2	-1	2	15:34	0:21
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	14:46	0:15
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	13:17	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:26	1:55
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	11:55	0:07
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	2	10:12	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:55	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	18:48	0:04
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	22:59	0:38
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	21:42	4:47
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	3	5	3	0	0	16:50	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	15:57	0:49

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	28	23	5	.821	50:30	Loss
C. Pickard	3	2	1	.667	9:30

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	2	2	4	8	3	0	+1	2	21:01	5:55
A. Kopitar	C	1	3	4	1	1	1	+1	0	20:37	6:03
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	19:29	6:09
W. Foegele	LW	0	2	2	2	3	0	0	0	15:53	1:01
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	3	4	1	0	2	22:31	5:24
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	20:06	1:08
K. Fiala	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	19:59	6:05
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	19:30	1:03
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:19	0:02
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:50	0:07
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3:50	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	17:37	0:01
B. Clarke	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:16	1:55
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	24:27	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	22:04	1:19
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	+2	0	21:05	0:03
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:50	0:00
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCorey Perry LAK Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.0, LAK 3.1	EDM 2, LAK 6
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	EDM 27.6, LAK 27.9	EDM 26, LAK 31
Win chance	LAK 52%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.0	1	0.81	1	30%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	8	0.89	4	33%	2
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	2	1.11	1	38%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	2	0.77	0	14%	0
EDM C. McDavid	2.6	2	1.27	0	32%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.5	2	0.53	2	22%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.4	2	0.55	0	29%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.4	1	0.44	0	18%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.4	3	0.48	1	20%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.3	3	0.57	0	22%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.3	3	0.35	0	8%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	3	0.72	1	22%	1
EDM J. Walman	2.0	1	0.36	0	10%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	1	0.63	0	21%	0
EDM E. Kane	1.9	1	0.38	0	20%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.8	0	0.29	1	6%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.7	4	0.74	2	27%	1
LAK P. Danault	1.6	0	0.55	1	18%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.6	3	0.33	0	12%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	2	0.35	1	6%	1
EDM C. Perry	1.4	0	0.39	0	19%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	1	0.78	4	23%	1
LAK D. Doughty	1.3	2	0.51	0	12%	0
EDM J. Klingberg	1.3	1	0.34	1	6%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	1	0.39	0	19%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	1	0.23	1	10%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.2	2	0.30	1	6%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.22	0	6%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	1	0.28	0	6%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.0	0	0.16	0	8%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	0	0.23	0	12%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.0	0	0.29	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	3	0.19	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.24	0	9%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.7	0	0.14	0	3%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	0	0.15	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.