Game Recap: EDM 3, LAK 1, April 29, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM3

FinalTue, Apr 29, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

LAK1

EDM beat LAK 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.66 expected goals to 1.87. EDM outshot LAK 46 to 22. Z. Hyman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. C. Pickard stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	1	2	3
LAK	0	1	0	1

2nd 3:33LAKA. KuzmenkoPP0.13 xG
2nd 6:16EDME. Kane0.07 xG
3rd 7:12EDMM. Janmark0.38 xG
3rd 19:02EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsEN0.81 xG

Team Stats

EDMLAK

46Shots on goal22

5.66Expected goals1.87

75Shot attempts50

365v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play1/3

46Hits59

13Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways21

1Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 5.66 xGLAK 1.87 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM43 on goal, 3 scored

LAK21 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	23:13	3:23
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	22:48	3:22
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	19:57	3:13
E. Kane	LW	1	0	1	5	4	1	+1	0	17:35	0:38
M. Janmark	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	2	10:44	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	8:25	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	0	6	0	+1	0	7:20	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	6	10	1	+1	0	19:18	1:10
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	13:16	0:39
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:03	2:49
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:29	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:39	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	1	1	5	3	0	+1	0	18:36	0:37
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	23:14	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	23:14	3:26
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	4	3	+1	4	22:15	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+2	0	20:04	0:43
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	2	3	2	-2	0	20:24	2:06
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:08	2:07
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	2	17:49	2:12
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	21:00	2:19
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	20:25	2:07
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	-2	0	20:14	1:48
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	3	2	3	-1	0	18:59	1:41
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	18:33	0:27
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	6	3	0	-1	0	17:24	1:36
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	5:18	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5:08	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	4:05	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	6	0	-2	2	26:06	2:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	21:40	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	6	2	-2	0	20:43	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	19:11	0:02
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:43	2:01
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:17	0:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	45	43	2	.956	56:53	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCorey Perry LAK Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, LAK 3.3	EDM 3, LAK 1
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	EDM 29.0, LAK 28.7	EDM 46, LAK 22
Win chance	LAK 51%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.4	3	0.95	0	34%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.3	2	1.02	1	36%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.1	2	1.28	1	41%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	3.1	2	0.82	0	16%	0
EDM C. McDavid	2.9	2	1.43	1	35%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.9	6	0.63	0	25%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.7	1	0.51	0	20%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.6	3	0.67	0	26%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	6	0.59	0	30%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.4	2	0.37	0	9%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.4	2	0.80	0	25%	0
EDM E. Kane	2.3	5	0.45	1	23%	1
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.2	1	0.45	1	19%	0
EDM J. Walman	2.1	2	0.36	0	10%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	3	0.65	1	21%	1
LAK P. Danault	1.9	0	0.68	0	20%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.8	2	0.30	0	6%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.8	2	0.79	1	29%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.6	2	0.34	0	13%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.5	1	0.56	0	14%	0
EDM J. Klingberg	1.5	5	0.38	1	7%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	2	0.91	1	25%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.5	2	0.40	0	19%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.33	0	7%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	4	0.41	0	19%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.3	0	0.30	0	6%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	0	0.26	0	7%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.1	0	0.31	0	7%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	0	0.23	1	9%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	2	0.25	0	12%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.0	0	0.27	0	9%	0
LAK J. Spence	0.7	0	0.22	0	3%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	1	0.15	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	3	0.21	1	8%	1
LAK J. Malott	0.7	0	0.10	0	5%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.4	0	0.10	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.