Game Recap: EDM 0, LAK 1, April 11, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

EDM0

FinalSat, Apr 11, 2026Every game that night

LAK1

LAK beat EDM 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.63 expected goals to 2.27. A. Henrique had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Forsberg stopped 27 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	0	0	0
LAK	1	0	0	1

1st 7:34LAKA. Panarin0.23 xG

Team Stats

EDMLAK

27Shots on goal21

2.27Expected goals1.63

63Shot attempts48

235v5 shots on goal17

0/1Power play0/1

28Hits30

16Blocked shots21

4Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways10

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.27 xGLAK 1.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM26 on goal, 0 scored

LAK21 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	1	0	-1	4	26:50	1:57
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	4	2	-1	0	18:27	1:57
J. Roslovic	C	3	1	0	0	0	18:13	1:57
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	0	0	17:43	1:57
K. Kapanen	RW	1	1	0	0	0	16:52	0:03
M. Savoie	C	3	0	0	-1	0	15:14	0:03
A. Henrique	C	4	3	2	0	0	15:08	0:03
T. Frederic	C	2	6	0	0	0	14:26	0:00
C. Dach	C	2	6	0	0	0	12:57	0:00
C. Lazar	C	1	2	0	0	0	11:18	0:00
J. Samanski	C	1	1	0	0	0	11:05	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	1	0	0	0	2:07	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	0	2	-1	0	27:36	1:57
D. Nurse	D	2	1	1	0	0	21:47	0:03
C. Murphy	D	0	1	3	0	0	21:31	0:03
M. Ekholm	D	1	0	2	-1	0	21:10	0:00
J. Walman	D	3	0	3	0	0	15:11	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	10:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	21	20	1	.952	57:27	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:23	1:45
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	21:40	1:34
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	21:01	0:31
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	3	1	2	+1	0	19:16	1:29
T. Moore	LW	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:54	0:25
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	17:31	1:35
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:25	0:15
J. Armia	RW	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:22	0:00
J. Wright	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:51	0:00
T. Ward	RW	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:40	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	6:46	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	6:16	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:48	0:26
D. Doughty	D	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	22:14	0:24
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	19:56	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	1	0	7	+1	2	19:55	1:36
C. Ceci	D	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:07	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	27	27	0	1.000	60:00	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid22:20M. Savoie13:03V. Podkolzin14:02

Line 2T. Frederic14:09C. Dach12:57J. Samanski10:03

Line 3A. Henrique14:12C. Lazar11:08J. Roslovic13:14

Line 4R. Nugent-Hopkins12:11K. Kapanen14:46M. Jones2:07

Pair 1C. Murphy19:57D. Nurse20:07

Pair 2M. Ekholm17:37E. Bouchard20:34

Pair 3J. Walman13:50T. Emberson10:58

LAK

Line 1Q. Byfield18:10T. Moore17:10A. Laferriere17:53

Line 2A. Kopitar15:58A. Panarin15:49A. Kempe14:07

Line 3J. Armia10:47J. Wright10:51S. Laughton11:25

Line 4M. Joseph6:46T. Ward8:40S. Helenius6:16

Pair 1D. Doughty19:33M. Anderson19:14

Pair 2J. Edmundson16:31B. Clarke17:03

Pair 3C. Ceci15:51B. Dumoulin15:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, LAK 3.1	EDM 0, LAK 1
Total goals	6.4	1
Shots on goal	EDM 28.2, LAK 27.6	EDM 27, LAK 21
Win chance	EDM 51%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.3	1	1.47	0	36%	0
LAK A. Panarin	2.8	1	1.22	1	35%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.7	4	0.64	0	24%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.6	3	0.96	0	35%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	2	0.57	0	23%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.3	1	0.91	0	16%	0
EDM M. Savoie	2.1	3	0.55	0	20%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.0	1	0.61	0	23%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	1	0.75	0	22%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.8	2	0.31	0	8%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.7	3	0.53	0	20%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.7	1	0.52	0	9%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.7	1	0.44	0	16%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.6	1	0.40	0	15%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.5	3	0.31	0	9%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	3	0.77	0	24%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.5	0	0.38	0	16%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.3	1	0.42	0	8%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.3	2	0.49	0	11%	0
LAK J. Wright	1.3	0	0.22	0	9%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.2	1	0.33	0	14%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	4	0.28	0	13%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	2	0.21	0	12%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	1	0.23	0	4%	0
EDM M. Jones	1.0	0	0.20	0	8%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.0	0	0.22	0	6%	0
LAK T. Ward	0.8	1	0.19	0	9%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	0	0.28	0	5%	0
LAK M. Joseph	0.7	0	0.23	0	8%	0
EDM C. Dach	0.7	2	0.16	0	6%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	0	0.17	0	8%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.6	1	0.16	0	3%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	1	0.15	0	6%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.6	0	0.20	0	3%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0
EDM J. Samanski	0.5	1	0.18	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.