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Game Recap
EDM4
FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night
LAK1

EDM beat LAK 4-1, with the chances close: 2.48 expected goals to 2.92. LAK outshot EDM 40 to 17. C. McDavid led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). B. Clarke had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. D. Levi stopped 39 of 40.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM3014
LAK0101
  1. 1st 7:16EDML. Draisaitl0.06 xG
  2. 1st 8:16EDMV. PodkolzinPP0.50 xG
  3. 1st 15:48EDMC. McDavid0.35 xG
  4. 2nd 17:29LAKB. Clarke0.03 xG
  5. 3rd 17:42EDMV. PodkolzinEN0.59 xG

Team Stats

EDMLAK
17Shots on goal40
2.48Expected goals2.92
36Shot attempts80
105v5 shots on goal31
1/3Power play0/4
21Hits27
18Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways20
3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.48 xGLAK 2.92 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdEDM goal, 7:16EDM goal, 8:16EDM goal, 15:48LAK goal, 17:29EDM goal, 17:42

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM16 on goal, 4 scored
LAK40 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC134210+2221:372:20
L. DraisaitlC112301+2020:112:22
V. PodkolzinRW202360+2018:242:20
J. DickinsonC0111010013:210:00
K. KapanenRW0000100017:462:23
A. FormentonLW0001110017:100:00
M. JosephRW0003220016:520:00
O. MichaelsRW0000210216:500:00
F. HallanderC0000000210:410:26
I. HowardLW000110007:460:28
T. FredericC000100007:270:28
J. SamanskiC000003006:230:00
E. BouchardD022122+2026:242:31
T. EmbersonD0110100012:050:00
C. MurphyD0000210024:280:00
R. SheaD0001120022:370:25
M. EkholmD000002+2221:210:17
S. MukhamadullinD0000120010:590:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Levi40391.97559:38Win
T. Jarry000–0:00

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. MooreLW011401-1017:072:25
S. LaughtonC011120-1014:210:00
A. PanarinLW000130-1224:004:02
A. KempeRW0001400023:043:51
Q. ByfieldRW000300-1021:343:49
A. LaferriereRW000230-1017:443:39
E. HaulaLW0004110016:102:27
J. ArmiaRW000230-2015:460:00
C. PerryRW000210-1013:461:58
S. HeleniusC000230008:510:00
A. LeeLW000130007:480:00
B. ClarkeD1016000221:124:37
E. GustafssonD0002020021:382:19
D. DoughtyD0002110218:282:13
J. EdmundsonD000303-1014:160:00
B. DumoulinD000001-1013:570:00
M. AndersonD0001210013:230:00
C. CeciD000311-1013:160:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Kuemper743.57120:00Loss
A. Forsberg9901.00039:07

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl16:17C. McDavid16:35V. Podkolzin14:34
Line 2M. Joseph14:33A. Formenton14:05O. Michaels14:01
Line 3K. Kapanen11:45F. Hallander10:02J. Dickinson11:09
Line 4T. Frederic6:59I. Howard7:18J. Samanski6:23
Pair 1C. Murphy19:31R. Shea18:07
Pair 2M. Ekholm16:01E. Bouchard19:26
Pair 3T. Emberson12:26S. Mukhamadullin10:33

LAK

Line 1A. Panarin18:11Q. Byfield16:06A. Kempe17:20
Line 2J. Armia14:40S. Laughton12:39T. Moore12:43
Line 3C. Perry10:44E. Haula12:05A. Laferriere12:31
Line 4A. Lee7:48S. Helenius8:51
Pair 1E. Gustafsson17:42B. Clarke15:29
Pair 2D. Doughty13:57J. Edmundson12:44
Pair 3M. Anderson11:53C. Ceci12:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
EDM C. McDavid3.5+116-1202Under
LAK A. Kempe2.5-114-1051Under
LAK A. Laferriere2.5+120-1402Under
LAK A. Panarin2.5-105-1151Under
EDM E. Bouchard2.5-130+1201Under
EDM L. Draisaitl2.5-160+1303Over
LAK Q. Byfield2.5+135-1603Over
LAK T. Moore2.5+130-1454Over
EDM V. Podkolzin2.5+100-1253Over
LAK B. Clarke1.5-140+1156Over
LAK D. Doughty1.5+120-1552Over
LAK E. Haula1.5+110-1304Over
EDM K. Kapanen1.5-125+1100Under
EDM M. Ekholm1.5+100-1300Under
LAK S. Laughton1.5-110-1151Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamCorey Perry LAK Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.2, LAK 3.0EDM 4, LAK 1
Total goals6.25
Shots on goalEDM 28.0, LAK 27.4EDM 17, LAK 40
Win chanceEDM 52%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.321.55438%1
LAK A. Panarin2.911.32039%0
LAK A. Kempe2.811.05038%0
EDM L. Draisaitl2.731.33239%1
LAK A. Laferriere2.620.70026%0
LAK Q. Byfield2.530.82029%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.410.98218%0
LAK T. Moore2.340.58124%0
EDM V. Podkolzin2.130.63223%2
EDM K. Kapanen1.800.52019%0
EDM A. Formenton1.810.41018%0
LAK E. Haula1.740.48019%0
LAK B. Clarke1.660.5019%1
LAK S. Laughton1.610.37117%0
EDM F. Hallander1.500.36012%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.400.4409%0
EDM O. Michaels1.300.31013%0
LAK J. Armia1.220.33015%0
LAK C. Perry1.120.36017%0
EDM I. Howard1.110.2208%0
EDM C. Murphy1.100.2607%0
LAK J. Edmundson1.030.2204%0
LAK D. Doughty1.020.4009%0
EDM M. Joseph1.030.30010%0
EDM T. Frederic1.010.19010%0
LAK A. Lee0.910.2109%0
EDM R. Shea0.910.4008%0
EDM J. Dickinson0.910.25111%0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin0.800.1805%0
LAK M. Anderson0.710.2605%0
LAK C. Ceci0.730.1904%0
LAK S. Helenius0.720.1507%0
LAK B. Dumoulin0.600.2104%0
EDM T. Emberson0.500.1212%0
EDM J. Samanski0.400.1706%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.