EDM beat MIN 7-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.84 expected goals to 1.71. L. Draisaitl led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). K. Kaprizov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. C. Pickard stopped 29 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 6:59EDMZ. HymanPP0.11 xG
- 1st 15:40EDMK. Kapanen0.18 xG
- 1st 18:48MINF. GaudreauPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 1:55EDMC. BrownSH0.14 xG
- 2nd 12:54EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 15:54EDML. Draisaitl0.06 xG
- 3rd 6:55EDMT. Stecher0.03 xG
- 3rd 17:26EDMD. Ryan0.09 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.84 xGMIN 1.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:03 | 3:37 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:54 | 3:53 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:28 | 3:45 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:42 | 3:55 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Ryan | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:31 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:10 | 1:36 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:41 | 1:26 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:30 | 1:44 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:22 | 3:50 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 21:32 | 1:28 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 59:33 | Win |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:22 | 2:13 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:08 | 2:01 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 23:14 | 3:07 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:53 | 3:04 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:44 | 2:45 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 15:39 | 3:06 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:54 | 2:24 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 10:20 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 31:49 | 2:27 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 26:19 | 2:58 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:25 | 2:20 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 26 | 21 | 5 | .808 | 40:00 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 9 | 7 | 2 | .778 | 20:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.2, MIN 3.0 | EDM 7, MIN 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 30.3, MIN 27.6 | EDM 35, MIN 30 |
| Win chance | EDM 53% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 6 | 1.30 | 0 | 45% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.2 | 2 | 1.47 | 2 | 38% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.8 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 5 | 1.20 | 4 | 40% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.4 | 0 | 0.79 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.2 | 4 | 0.38 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.0 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.5 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.3 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.0 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.8 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.