Game Recap: EDM 5, MIN 3, January 15, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM5

FinalWed, Jan 15, 2025Every game that night

MIN3

EDM beat MIN 5-3, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.54. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). E. Bouchard had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. C. Pickard stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	2	1	2	5
MIN	2	1	0	3

1st 3:02MINM. BoldyPP0.10 xG
1st 16:11MINM. RossiPP0.14 xG
1st 16:32EDMZ. Hyman0.47 xG
1st 18:28EDMC. McDavidPP0.17 xG
2nd 4:09MINR. Hartman0.04 xG
2nd 14:15EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.04 xG
3rd 1:28EDMV. Podkolzin0.01 xG
3rd 12:49EDMC. McDavid0.09 xG

Team Stats

EDMMIN

36Shots on goal34

2.92Expected goals2.54

64Shot attempts63

335v5 shots on goal28

1/1Power play2/3

13Hits20

16Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes4

20Giveaways15

1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.92 xGMIN 2.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM36 on goal, 5 scored

MIN33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	2	1	3	3	0	2	+1	0	21:38	0:20
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	13:56	0:20
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	20:28	0:20
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:13	0:20
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	15:20	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	14:13	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:42	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	14:45	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:24	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	11:33	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:16	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:42	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	22:13	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	19:40	0:20
J. Brown	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	17:25	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+3	0	17:06	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	2	21:59	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	21:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	34	31	3	.912	60:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	1	1	2	7	0	1	-2	0	26:55	4:11
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	2	2	3	0	1	-2	0	24:07	4:11
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	2	2	4	0	1	+1	0	22:01	4:11
M. Rossi	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	-2	0	24:51	4:11
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	2	19:24	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	14:26	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	5	4	0	-1	0	13:26	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	13:09	0:00
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:49	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:46	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:06	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6:03	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	26:57	4:11
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-2	0	23:30	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	21:20	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	21:03	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:07	0:00
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	36	31	5	.861	57:36	Loss
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCalvin Pickard MIN Faces EDM, his team until Jan 202631 saves on 34, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.3, MIN 2.8	EDM 5, MIN 3
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	EDM 31.8, MIN 27.0	EDM 36, MIN 34
Win chance	EDM 58%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	3	1.54	3	38%	2
MIN M. Boldy	3.0	7	0.81	2	30%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	4	1.33	1	42%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.8	2	0.75	1	35%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.7	4	0.66	2	26%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	7	0.80	1	13%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.4	0	0.56	1	20%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.4	1	0.40	0	9%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.3	3	0.89	2	24%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.1	3	0.45	0	10%	0
MIN M. Rossi	2.0	4	0.65	1	25%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	3	0.45	1	20%	1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	3	0.72	2	22%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.5	1	0.30	1	6%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	3	0.32	1	13%	1
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.5	0	0.36	0	16%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.3	1	0.37	0	14%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	1	0.40	0	19%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.3	1	0.24	0	6%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.2	2	0.32	0	10%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	2	0.31	0	8%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	5	0.22	0	13%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.1	1	0.29	0	7%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	1	0.34	0	15%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.0	2	0.30	0	14%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	0.9	2	0.25	0	10%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.19	1	2%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.27	0	9%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	1	0.06	0	5%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.7	0	0.18	0	5%	0
EDM J. Brown	0.7	1	0.11	1	3%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.7	0	0.15	0	5%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.7	0	0.15	0	2%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	1	0.14	0	7%	0
MIN T. Dermott	0.5	0	0.09	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.