Game Recap: EDM 2, MIN 5, December 20, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM2

FinalSat, Dec 20, 2025Every game that night

MIN5

MIN beat EDM 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.12 expected goals to 3.08. M. Boldy led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Hartman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. F. Gustavsson stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	2	0	0	2
MIN	3	0	2	5

1st 3:42MINM. Boldy0.17 xG
1st 10:56MINM. BoldyPP0.08 xG
1st 13:35EDMA. Mangiapane0.08 xG
1st 18:44EDMC. McDavidPP0.33 xG
1st 19:52MINR. Hartman0.10 xG
3rd 9:08MINV. Tarasenko0.74 xG
3rd 18:35MINN. SturmEN0.96 xG

Team Stats

EDMMIN

30Shots on goal37

3.08Expected goals5.12

68Shot attempts50

215v5 shots on goal33

1/2Power play1/2

23Hits25

5Blocked shots21

4Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways16

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.08 xGMIN 5.12 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM30 on goal, 2 scored

MIN35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	2	2	5	1	0	-2	4	22:07	3:28
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	6	3	0	-2	0	25:09	3:34
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-3	0	22:49	3:34
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	9:55	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	21:58	3:30
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	17:21	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:42	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:49	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:35	0:04
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:37	0:00
Q. Hutson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:17	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	8:22	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	0	27:07	3:34
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	21:46	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	21:25	0:06
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:54	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:25	0:00
R. Stillman	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	36	32	4	.889	57:42	Loss
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	2	0	2	4	0	1	0	0	20:57	1:59
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+1	0	15:36	1:54
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	1	2	4	3	0	+2	0	14:53	1:04
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	6	1	2	+1	0	15:46	1:09
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	15:38	1:04
Y. Trenin	C	0	1	1	0	9	0	+1	0	14:10	0:00
N. Sturm	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	10:30	0:00
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	3	2	+1	0	20:08	1:56
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	6	1	2	+1	0	17:51	1:59
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:52	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	9:49	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:10	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	24:53	2:00
J. Middleton	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	15:02	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+2	0	26:03	1:03
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	2	19:47	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	17:18	1:07
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman16:57C. McDavid18:20R. Nugent-Hopkins15:16

Line 2V. Podkolzin15:12L. Draisaitl16:21T. Frederic11:49

Line 3A. Henrique10:30M. Savoie11:38A. Mangiapane9:55

Line 4M. Janmark9:29M. Jones8:22Q. Hutson9:17

Pair 1M. Ekholm18:58E. Bouchard19:22

Pair 2D. Nurse20:24S. Stastney18:22

Pair 3R. Stillman11:57T. Emberson13:16

MIN

Line 1J. Ek14:53M. Boldy15:42M. Johansson12:58

Line 2V. Tarasenko12:44D. Yurov13:52Y. Trenin12:38

Line 3M. Zuccarello13:42R. Hartman14:36K. Kaprizov15:10

Line 4M. Foligno9:49V. Hinostroza9:10N. Sturm7:57

Pair 1Q. Hughes22:53B. Faber21:17

Pair 2J. Spurgeon13:29J. Brodin17:18

Pair 3J. Middleton14:25D.Jiricek12:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCalvin Pickard MIN Faces EDM, his team until Jan 202632 saves on 36

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 2.9, MIN 3.0	EDM 2, MIN 5
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	EDM 29.3, MIN 27.5	EDM 30, MIN 37
Win chance	MIN 51%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	6	1.25	0	45%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	4	1.03	2	34%	2
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	6	1.35	1	35%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	1	0.74	1	35%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	3	0.85	1	16%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.8	3	0.74	0	26%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	5	1.17	2	39%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	1	1.02	1	14%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.2	0	0.34	0	9%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	6	0.49	1	21%	1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	3	0.74	0	23%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	2	0.41	0	9%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	2.0	4	0.63	2	24%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	1.9	0	0.76	2	20%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.8	1	0.42	0	10%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	1	0.36	0	15%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.5	1	0.52	0	16%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.5	0	0.31	1	14%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.5	1	0.28	0	14%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	1	0.31	0	16%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	3	0.51	1	17%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	0	0.34	0	8%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	3	0.34	0	15%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	1	0.32	0	7%	0
MIN N. Sturm	1.1	3	0.24	1	11%	1
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.0	2	0.26	1	13%	1
EDM M. Jones	1.0	2	0.16	0	7%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	0	0.18	0	10%	0
EDM S. Stastney	1.0	1	0.19	0	3%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	1	0.23	1	6%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.23	0	9%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.7	0	0.14	0	3%	0
EDM R. Stillman	0.6	1	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.