Game Recap: EDM 0, MTL 3, November 18, 2024

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Game Recap

EDM0

FinalMon, Nov 18, 2024Every game that night

MTL3

MTL beat EDM 3-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.44 expected goals to 3.16. J. Evans led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Nugent-Hopkins had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Montembeault stopped 30 of 30.

Team Stats

EDMMTL

30Shots on goal25

3.16Expected goals2.44

53Shot attempts57

195v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play0/2

13Hits19

15Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways9

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.16 xGMTL 2.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM28 on goal, 0 scored

MTL24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	0	0	-2	0	22:42	5:25
L. Draisaitl	C	2	0	0	-3	0	21:48	5:24
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	5	2	0	-1	0	21:08	5:11
Z. Hyman	LW	4	1	0	-2	0	19:41	5:12
A. Henrique	C	2	0	2	0	0	15:55	0:36
V. Podkolzin	RW	2	2	2	0	0	14:30	0:00
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	-1	2	13:59	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	0	0	13:39	0:48
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	13:11	0:00
D. Ryan	C	1	1	0	0	0	12:35	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	3	0	0	-1	0	12:19	0:34
E. Bouchard	D	3	0	1	-3	0	22:35	5:26
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	2	-3	0	21:16	0:35
B. Kulak	D	4	0	2	0	2	18:10	0:49
T. Stecher	D	0	0	1	0	0	15:27	0:00
T. Emberson	D	1	3	1	0	0	13:02	0:00
T. Dermott	D	0	2	2	0	0	12:37	0:00
J. Brown	D	0	2	0	0	2	11:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	24	22	2	.917	57:28	Loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Evans	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	17:44	0:07
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	+2	0	21:00	2:07
B. Gallagher	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:21	1:54
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	13:46	2:08
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	17:20	2:09
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	2	16:22	2:06
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:08	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	14:38	1:44
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:29	1:53
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:16	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	9:52	1:43
L. Condotta	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:42	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+3	0	24:03	1:57
K. Guhle	D	1	0	1	4	0	2	+2	0	18:21	0:09
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	22:17	2:03
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	20:52	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	17:10	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	30	30	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.7, MTL 2.7	EDM 0, MTL 3
Total goals	6.4	3
Shots on goal	EDM 32.4, MTL 23.8	EDM 30, MTL 25
Win chance	EDM 66%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.4	1	1.71	0	41%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.2	4	0.89	0	40%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.8	1	0.70	1	31%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	2	1.45	0	46%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	3	1.04	0	18%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.3	0	0.62	0	12%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.1	3	0.55	0	24%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	5	0.89	0	25%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	4	0.82	1	27%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.8	2	0.43	1	19%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	1	0.66	1	12%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.7	2	0.52	0	16%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.6	2	0.37	0	17%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.6	2	0.58	0	18%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.5	2	0.52	0	24%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.5	1	0.33	0	12%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	0	0.34	0	17%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.5	4	0.38	0	7%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	2	0.27	0	13%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	1	0.43	0	17%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	1	0.35	0	18%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.1	1	0.39	0	14%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	4	0.33	1	8%	1
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.40	2	12%	1
EDM J. Brown	1.0	0	0.20	0	5%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.0	1	0.25	0	12%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	1.0	0	0.36	0	13%	0
MTL L. Hutson	0.9	1	0.50	0	5%	0
MTL L. Condotta	0.9	1	0.21	0	11%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	1	0.23	0	3%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.9	0	0.15	0	3%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.8	1	0.19	0	10%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.7	0	0.28	0	5%	0
EDM T. Dermott	0.5	0	0.12	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.