Game Recap: EDM 1, MTL 4, December 14, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM1

FinalSun, Dec 14, 2025Every game that night

MTL4

MTL beat EDM 4-1, with the chances close: 3.87 expected goals to 3.82. J. Slafkovský led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Texier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Dobes stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	0	1	1
MTL	0	2	2	4

2nd 2:28MTLI. DemidovPP0.12 xG
2nd 11:58MTLJ. Veleno0.03 xG
3rd 3:38MTLN. SuzukiPP0.42 xG
3rd 12:29EDMZ. HymanPP0.48 xG
3rd 13:52MTLA. Texier0.09 xG

Team Stats

EDMMTL

28Shots on goal27

3.82Expected goals3.87

57Shot attempts45

155v5 shots on goal20

1/5Power play2/4

17Hits20

12Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes10

19Giveaways17

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.82 xGMTL 3.87 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM28 on goal, 1 scored

MTL25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	25:52	5:59
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	-1	0	24:52	6:01
L. Draisaitl	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	25:55	6:01
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	23:27	5:59
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:43	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	13:11	0:25
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:37	0:27
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:51	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:02	0:27
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	9:35	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:46	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	5:39	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	6	1	3	-1	0	29:49	6:11
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	24:26	0:25
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	19:09	0:15
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	4	14:10	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:41	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	27	23	4	.852	55:37	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	2	2	3	1	1	0	2	16:28	3:25
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	19:41	3:25
A. Texier	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	2	14:17	1:31
J. Veleno	C	1	0	1	1	5	1	+1	0	13:58	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	13:16	3:31
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:49	0:13
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	15:28	0:13
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	14:38	3:20
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	14:33	1:11
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	13:33	1:29
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	12:43	1:32
O. Beck	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:19	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	21:17	3:43
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	13:24	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	26:05	0:18
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	22:40	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	19:16	1:19
A. Engstrom	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	28	27	1	.964	59:33	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman15:02C. McDavid15:51R. Nugent-Hopkins12:05

Line 2L. Draisaitl15:25V. Podkolzin12:27M. Savoie10:10

Line 3M. Janmark9:39T. Frederic9:25A. Henrique10:18

Line 4A. Mangiapane9:01M. Jones5:39C. Lazar6:09

Pair 1M. Ekholm18:52E. Bouchard17:13

Pair 2D. Nurse15:28A. Regula12:59

Pair 3T. Emberson11:11S. Stastney11:36

MTL

Line 1Z. Bolduc11:37C. Caufield10:51N. Suzuki12:59

Line 2A. Texier12:46J. Anderson11:21J. Evans12:32

Line 3B. Gallagher11:11J. Veleno10:38O. Beck8:19

Line 4J. Slafkovský10:41I. Demidov9:01O. Kapanen9:08

Pair 1M. Matheson15:36N. Dobson14:12

Pair 2A. Carrier15:26L. Hutson16:46

Pair 3J. Struble13:07A. Engstrom12:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.3, MTL 3.0	EDM 1, MTL 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	EDM 28.4, MTL 25.3	EDM 28, MTL 27
Win chance	EDM 55%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	4	0.88	0	35%	0
EDM C. McDavid	2.9	3	1.49	1	37%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.8	2	0.81	1	37%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.7	4	1.34	0	43%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	6	0.94	1	18%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	2	1.01	1	28%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	1	0.39	0	11%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	3	0.62	2	22%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.9	1	0.54	0	11%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	2	0.46	0	10%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	1	0.79	0	23%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.8	0	0.50	0	21%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.7	2	0.49	0	21%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.6	2	0.36	0	16%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	0	0.42	0	16%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.5	4	0.37	0	15%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	0	0.44	0	10%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	2	0.37	0	18%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	1	0.31	0	17%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.3	5	0.39	1	16%	1
MTL L. Hutson	1.3	1	0.76	2	8%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.3	2	0.67	1	16%	1
EDM M. Jones	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.1	1	0.34	0	16%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.1	1	0.24	1	11%	1
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	0	0.22	0	12%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.36	0	12%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.9	1	0.11	0	4%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	1	0.29	0	5%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
MTL O. Beck	0.8	0	0.13	0	7%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	1	0.26	0	10%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	1	0.18	0	8%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.6	0	0.18	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.