Game Recap: EDM 4, NSH 2, October 17, 2024

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Game Recap

EDM4

FinalThu, Oct 17, 2024Every game that night

NSH2

EDM beat NSH 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.53 expected goals to 2.10. EDM outshot NSH 36 to 27. B. Kulak led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Pickard stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	2	1	4
NSH	1	1	0	2

1st 11:46NSHF. Forsberg0.07 xG
1st 17:39EDMB. Kulak0.04 xG
2nd 10:50EDMJ. Skinner0.24 xG
2nd 17:45NSHJ. MarchessaultPP0.07 xG
2nd 18:29EDMC. McDavid0.13 xG
3rd 19:24EDMB. KulakEN0.71 xG

Team Stats

EDMNSH

36Shots on goal27

3.53Expected goals2.10

68Shot attempts56

305v5 shots on goal19

0/4Power play1/3

9Hits29

18Blocked shots15

11Penalty minutes13

18Giveaways21

1Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.53 xGNSH 2.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM36 on goal, 4 scored

NSH26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	21:11	5:36
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:53	5:37
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:19	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	13:04	2:09
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	+2	0	19:01	5:35
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:49	5:18
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	14:52	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	14:21	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	12:32	2:04
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	11:51	2:08
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	10:51	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	10:09	0:00
B. Kulak	D	2	0	2	2	0	3	+2	0	17:26	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+2	0	22:33	1:55
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	5	21:26	2:34
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	23:16	5:44
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:39	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	14:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	27	25	2	.926	59:54	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	20:48	3:28
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	20:32	3:26
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	-1	0	17:16	3:27
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:26	1:52
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	-1	0	18:04	3:28
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-3	0	14:47	0:05
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:01	1:54
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:57	1:53
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:04	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-3	2	10:56	0:05
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	5	10:55	0:05
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:50	1:52
R. Josi	D	0	2	2	2	3	3	-1	0	25:49	3:44
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	2	23:00	1:40
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-1	0	22:12	0:05
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	4	17:03	0:01
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	15:14	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	35	32	3	.914	57:59	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMattias Ekholm EDM Faces NSH, his team until Feb 20231 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.1, NSH 3.1	EDM 4, NSH 2
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	EDM 28.8, NSH 29.5	EDM 36, NSH 27
Win chance	EDM 50%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.8	1	1.11	1	40%	1
EDM C. McDavid	3.2	4	1.58	1	38%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	3.2	5	0.84	0	37%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	3.1	4	1.03	0	37%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	3.1	4	0.85	1	35%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.7	2	0.99	2	22%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.6	1	0.65	0	22%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	1	1.23	1	39%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.4	3	0.91	0	18%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.3	3	0.59	1	24%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	1	0.82	1	28%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	1	0.50	1	12%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	2	0.83	0	23%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.9	2	0.44	0	17%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	3	0.51	0	13%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.7	2	0.81	0	22%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.7	3	0.33	1	9%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	2	0.46	0	20%	0
NSH P. Tomasino	1.3	0	0.41	0	13%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.3	1	0.51	0	18%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.3	0	0.34	0	13%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.2	3	0.27	0	9%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	1	0.26	0	13%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.1	2	0.32	0	14%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	2	0.23	0	9%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.0	2	0.23	2	4%	2
EDM C. Perry	1.0	0	0.26	0	13%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.0	1	0.18	0	5%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
NSH A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.30	0	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	1	0.24	1	10%	0
NSH D. Fabbro	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
NSH L. Schenn	0.9	1	0.16	0	4%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	1	0.15	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	2	0.24	0	4%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.7	2	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.