Game Recap: EDM 5, NSH 1, October 31, 2024

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Game Recap

EDM5

FinalThu, Oct 31, 2024Every game that night

NSH1

EDM beat NSH 5-1, with the chances close: 2.21 expected goals to 2.01. L. Draisaitl led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Nurse had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Pickard stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	2	1	2	5
NSH	1	0	0	1

1st 0:37EDMV. Arvidsson0.08 xG
1st 5:05NSHF. ForsbergPP0.14 xG
1st 9:54EDMC. Perry0.34 xG
2nd 9:03EDML. Draisaitl0.14 xG
3rd 1:48EDML. Draisaitl0.12 xG
3rd 12:46EDMZ. Hyman0.14 xG

Team Stats

EDMNSH

29Shots on goal27

2.21Expected goals2.01

54Shot attempts57

275v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play1/3

20Hits30

19Blocked shots11

16Penalty minutes12

9Giveaways9

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.21 xGNSH 2.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM29 on goal, 5 scored

NSH27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	2	1	3	3	0	0	+3	0	19:20	1:10
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+3	0	17:47	1:10
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+2	0	17:36	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	16:47	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	5	13:22	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	11:54	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	10:21	0:00
D. Caggiula	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	8:27	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	18:29	1:10
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:24	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	12:38	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	2	3	1	+2	0	23:27	1:10
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	0	22:51	1:10
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	5	4	3	+2	2	22:18	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	6	+1	0	20:45	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	5	16:23	0:00
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	14:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	20:07	4:01
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	19:46	3:46
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	19:45	3:51
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	5	5	0	0	0	18:21	3:49
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:56	0:52
T. Novak	C	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:16	0:47
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:08	0:44
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:56	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	1	3	0	-3	0	13:50	0:48
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:24	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	4	0	-3	5	10:14	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	6:23	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	21:30	0:48
R. Josi	D	0	0	4	0	2	-2	0	21:26	4:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	19:50	0:19
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	19:40	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	18:27	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	1	3	1	-2	5	15:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	29	24	5	.828	59:56	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMattias Ekholm EDM Faces NSH, his team until Feb 20231 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, NSH 3.2	EDM 5, NSH 1
Total goals	6.4	6
Shots on goal	EDM 29.9, NSH 30.1	EDM 29, NSH 27
Win chance	EDM 51%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.9	4	1.06	1	39%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	3.2	2	0.99	0	36%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.2	2	0.75	1	35%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	3.0	5	0.82	0	34%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.9	4	0.94	0	21%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.7	5	0.65	1	22%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	3	1.18	3	38%	2
EDM J. Skinner	2.6	0	0.59	1	25%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.4	2	0.85	1	18%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.1	2	0.51	1	12%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	2	0.79	0	27%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	0	0.78	0	22%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	5	0.35	1	10%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	2	0.50	0	13%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.8	2	0.40	0	15%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.6	0	0.76	0	21%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.5	1	0.54	0	19%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.4	2	0.26	0	9%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	1	0.44	0	20%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.3	1	0.34	0	13%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	0	0.26	0	13%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	0	0.26	0	6%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	0	0.25	0	10%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	1	0.29	1	14%	1
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	0	0.21	1	10%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.1	0	0.32	0	6%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.0	1	0.17	0	5%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.0	3	0.21	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	1.0	1	0.27	0	11%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.0	0	0.16	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
NSH J. Parssinen	0.9	0	0.32	0	12%	0
EDM D. Caggiula	0.8	1	0.18	1	8%	0
EDM T. Dermott	0.7	0	0.13	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.