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Game Recap
EDM3
Final/OTTue, Jan 13, 2026Every game that night
NSH4

NSH beat EDM 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.78 expected goals to 3.17. L. Draisaitl led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). E. Haula had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Saros stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
EDM12003
NSH12014
  1. 1st 2:45NSHS. Stamkos0.10 xG
  2. 1st 17:06EDMZ. HymanPP0.17 xG
  3. 2nd 3:03NSHE. Haula0.06 xG
  4. 2nd 7:20EDML. Draisaitl0.11 xG
  5. 2nd 13:12EDMZ. HymanPP0.65 xG
  6. 2nd 13:50NSHR. Josi0.03 xG
  7. OT 3:43NSHR. Josi0.07 xG

Team Stats

EDMNSH
31Shots on goal27
3.17Expected goals2.78
54Shot attempts60
255v5 shots on goal23
2/4Power play0/3
18Hits22
19Blocked shots11
11Penalty minutes13
18Giveaways20
4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.17 xGNSH 2.78 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTNSH goal, 2:45EDM goal, 17:06NSH goal, 3:03EDM goal, 7:20EDM goal, 13:12NSH goal, 13:50NSH goal, 3:43

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM31 on goal, 3 scored
NSH27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. DraisaitlC1234000023:592:59
C. McDavidC022300-1026:252:59
Z. HymanLW2023010019:133:18
K. KapanenRW0113100217:430:15
V. PodkolzinRW0111000015:170:00
R. Nugent-HopkinsC000202-1020:443:18
J. RoslovicC000131-1014:480:15
M. SavoieC000100-1012:390:14
A. MangiapaneLW000120-1210:200:19
M. JanmarkC000002-1210:010:00
T. FredericC000040-106:530:00
I. HowardLW000110-106:140:00
E. BouchardD000111-2027:213:30
M. EkholmD000044-1021:590:35
D. NurseD0005210521:300:00
T. EmbersonD0002050018:560:00
J. WalmanD000201-1017:140:03
S. StastneyD000101-1013:530:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
T. Jarry27234.85263:43OT loss
C. Pickard000–0:00

NSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. O'ReillyC0112010022:151:53
S. StamkosC101320+1016:492:48
E. HaulaLW101510+1016:331:51
M. BuntingLW011210+1014:552:23
M. WoodRW011100+2010:561:31
F. ForsbergLW0000200417:382:23
L. EvangelistaRW0002120017:272:27
C. SmithRW0003200017:060:00
M. McCarronC0002330513:590:03
F. SvechkovC000030+1013:310:57
R. SchaeferLW0001200011:390:05
T. JostC000011+1010:530:00
R. JosiD202302+2025:362:22
B. SkjeiD011211+2022:420:59
A. WilsbyD011101+1021:300:11
N. BlankenburgD011030+1217:121:47
N. PerbixD0000000020:140:00
J. BarronD0000000215:010:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Saros31283.90363:43Win
J. Annunen000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman15:18C. McDavid16:45R. Nugent-Hopkins14:09
Line 2K. Kapanen16:14V. Podkolzin14:45L. Draisaitl16:51
Line 3J. Roslovic13:52M. Savoie10:47A. Mangiapane10:01
Line 4M. Janmark9:23T. Frederic6:53I. Howard6:14
Pair 1M. Ekholm18:54E. Bouchard17:59
Pair 2D. Nurse18:48T. Emberson16:51
Pair 3J. Walman15:49S. Stastney12:42

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly16:06F. Forsberg14:33L. Evangelista15:00
Line 2S. Stamkos12:35M. Bunting12:32E. Haula12:20
Line 3C. Smith13:45R. Schaefer11:34M. McCarron11:04
Line 4F. Svechkov11:24T. Jost10:53M. Wood9:25
Pair 1A. Wilsby19:37B. Skjei17:40
Pair 2R. Josi18:49N. Perbix16:55
Pair 3J. Barron15:01N. Blankenburg13:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.2, NSH 3.2EDM 3, NSH 4
Total goals6.47
Shots on goalEDM 28.1, NSH 28.8EDM 31, NSH 27
Win chanceEDM 50%NSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.531.57237%0
NSH F. Forsberg3.100.98037%0
EDM Z. Hyman2.930.83236%2
EDM L. Draisaitl2.841.34341%1
EDM E. Bouchard2.610.97020%0
NSH S. Stamkos2.630.90137%1
NSH L. Evangelista2.520.70020%0
NSH R. Josi2.430.78219%2
NSH R. O'Reilly2.020.87128%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.020.81023%0
NSH M. Bunting1.920.57122%0
EDM D. Nurse1.850.36010%0
EDM J. Roslovic1.710.46018%0
NSH E. Haula1.750.45118%1
EDM M. Ekholm1.700.45010%0
EDM J. Walman1.520.39011%0
NSH B. Skjei1.420.38110%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.410.39115%0
NSH M. McCarron1.420.25011%0
NSH M. Wood1.410.33115%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.430.35112%0
NSH C. Smith1.330.26011%0
EDM I. Howard1.210.20011%0
EDM M. Savoie1.110.26012%0
NSH F. Svechkov1.100.27011%0
NSH N. Blankenburg1.100.3318%0
NSH T. Jost1.000.2209%0
NSH R. Schaefer1.010.30014%0
NSH A. Wilsby1.010.1914%0
EDM S. Stastney0.910.1904%0
NSH N. Perbix0.900.2606%0
EDM A. Mangiapane0.910.26012%0
EDM T. Frederic0.800.1709%0
NSH J. Barron0.700.1806%0
EDM M. Janmark0.700.2107%0
EDM T. Emberson0.620.2003%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.