EDM beat NYI 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.85 expected goals to 1.99. EDM outshot NYI 35 to 25. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. DeAngelo had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Pickard stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| NYI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 8:46EDML. Draisaitl0.10 xG
- 3rd 1:21NYIB. Horvat0.09 xG
- OT 3:53EDML. Draisaitl0.31 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 3.85 xGNYI 1.99 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 24:07 | 3:48 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 24:59 | 3:48 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:33 | 2:39 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:12 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:12 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:54 | 1:17 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 2:43 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 25:20 | 3:39 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 24:49 | 0:47 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:55 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 63:34 | Win |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:42 | 3:15 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 2:56 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:18 | 2:50 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:11 | 2:40 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:34 | 0:08 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | 3:18 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:04 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:33 | 2:55 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:04 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 2:41 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:08 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 23:20 | 0:20 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 | 2:38 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:37 | 3:30 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:36 | 2:41 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 63:53 | OT loss |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.1, NYI 3.1 | EDM 2, NYI 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 30.0, NYI 29.3 | EDM 35, NYI 25 |
| Win chance | NYI 51% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.1 | 1 | 1.49 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.1 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.0 | 6 | 1.27 | 2 | 41% | 2 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.8 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.7 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.3 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.9 | 5 | 0.55 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.5 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.5 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.2 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.2 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.