Game Recap: EDM 2, NYI 4, October 16, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM2

FinalThu, Oct 16, 2025Every game that night

NYI4

NYI beat EDM 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.24 expected goals to 3.44. EDM outshot NYI 33 to 25. B. Horvat scored three for NYI. B. Horvat had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. D. Rittich stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	1	0	2
NYI	1	1	2	4

1st 16:23NYIM. Barzal0.22 xG
1st 17:40EDML. DraisaitlPP0.17 xG
2nd 8:53EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.09 xG
2nd 17:56NYIB. HorvatSH0.21 xG
3rd 15:14NYIB. HorvatPP0.15 xG
3rd 19:51NYIB. HorvatEN0.89 xG

Team Stats

EDMNYI

33Shots on goal25

3.44Expected goals4.24

62Shot attempts58

235v5 shots on goal18

1/4Power play1/5

7Hits18

13Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways11

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.44 xGNYI 4.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM32 on goal, 2 scored

NYI25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	25:22	3:55
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	-3	2	25:20	3:56
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	20:46	3:48
D. Tomasek	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	2	12:57	3:45
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	17:33	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	13:13	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:24	0:27
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:17	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:06	0:29
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	10:36	0:26
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:09	0:00
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:19	0:20
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:08	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	24:19	2:47
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	2	22:13	0:34
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	0	6	-1	0	21:29	1:13
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:53	0:10
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	24	21	3	.875	57:36	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	3	0	3	7	1	1	+3	0	18:45	4:20
M. Barzal	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	24:31	4:24
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	17:17	3:54
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	14:15	0:27
E. Heineman	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	2	12:06	1:11
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:57	4:26
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	17:59	1:44
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	12:53	1:49
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:55	1:36
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:03	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:46	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:43	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+3	0	21:12	0:21
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	17:38	2:56
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	24:14	3:30
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	1	6	4	0	2	19:47	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+3	2	17:50	0:06
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	14:51	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	33	31	2	.939	59:58	Win
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid16:33A. Mangiapane13:10D. Tomasek9:12

Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins12:04J. Roslovic12:15L. Draisaitl15:41

Line 3K. Kapanen10:29T. Frederic10:10V. Podkolzin9:38

Line 4A. Henrique9:04M. Savoie8:43I. Howard7:59

Pair 1D. Nurse17:19T. Stecher15:14

Pair 2M. Ekholm17:14E. Bouchard15:54

Pair 3B. Kulak14:01T. Emberson10:45

NYI

Line 1A. Duclair14:58M. Barzal17:34K. Palmieri14:42

Line 2J. Drouin11:32E. Heineman10:08B. Horvat9:56

Line 3A. Lee10:36M. Shabanov10:19J. Pageau10:19

Line 4C. Cizikas8:20S. Holmstrom8:12K. MacLean7:43

Pair 1A. Romanov16:21T. DeAngelo17:42

Pair 2R. Pulock16:16A. Pelech13:48

Pair 3S. Mayfield13:41M. Schaefer13:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.4, NYI 3.1	EDM 2, NYI 4
Total goals	6.4	6
Shots on goal	EDM 30.5, NYI 29.7	EDM 33, NYI 25
Win chance	EDM 54%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.4	5	1.74	1	39%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	7	0.82	3	33%	3
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.1	2	1.48	1	45%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	3.1	3	0.97	0	17%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.9	1	0.96	2	25%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.5	1	0.56	0	25%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	2	0.70	0	28%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	5	0.82	1	24%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	2	0.38	0	8%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.9	2	0.50	0	12%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	3	0.44	0	9%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.6	4	0.48	0	17%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	3	0.42	0	21%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	1	0.28	0	5%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.4	1	0.35	0	13%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.3	1	0.25	0	11%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.3	2	0.32	0	15%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.3	1	0.61	1	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	1	0.39	0	18%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.43	1	15%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.2	0	0.38	0	17%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.2	1	0.22	0	5%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.2	1	0.23	0	3%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	0	0.24	0	10%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	1	0.29	0	11%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.0	1	0.40	0	17%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.0	1	0.25	1	14%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.0	1	0.25	1	6%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	1	0.12	0	3%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	2	0.17	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.15	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.