Game Recap: EDM 4, NYI 0, October 31, 2026

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Game Recap

EDM4

FinalSat, Oct 31, 2026Every game that night

NYI0

EDM beat NYI 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.14 expected goals to 1.81. R. Nugent-Hopkins led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Jarry stopped 18 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	3	1	4
NYI	0	0	0	0

2nd 8:42EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.29 xG
2nd 9:50EDMV. Podkolzin0.33 xG
2nd 18:26EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.29 xG
3rd 17:23EDMJ. DickinsonEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

EDMNYI

24Shots on goal18

3.14Expected goals1.81

47Shot attempts39

155v5 shots on goal12

1/6Power play0/4

17Hits24

8Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes33

14Giveaways15

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.14 xGNYI 1.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM22 on goal, 4 scored

NYI17 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	19:41	7:16
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	2	0	2	2	0	0	+1	2	18:49	7:14
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	23:20	7:42
K. Kapanen	RW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	19:27	7:17
M. Joseph	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	15:03	0:07
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:56	2:21
J. Dickinson	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	12:46	0:08
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	14:56	2:05
A. Formenton	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	13:53	0:06
O. Michaels	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	9:49	2:27
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:30	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	21:58	7:46
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	20:41	2:09
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:35	2:11
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	20:35	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	2	15:47	0:20
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:33	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	18	18	0	1.000	60:00	Win
M. Tomkins	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Holmstrom	RW	3	0	1	-2	0	20:31	4:08
B. Horvat	C	3	1	0	-3	0	20:29	4:31
B. Schenn	C	0	3	0	-1	0	17:48	4:31
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	0	0	17:33	3:24
K. Palmieri	C	4	3	1	-2	0	17:24	4:32
V. Eklund	RW	1	3	0	0	2	15:32	3:53
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	2	15:16	3:27
O. Palat	LW	0	1	0	0	0	15:11	2:52
C. Cizikas	C	0	3	0	0	0	13:25	0:05
K. MacLean	C	0	3	0	-1	0	11:35	0:02
M. Chaffee	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	9:52	0:01
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	15	0:56	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	2	3	0	-2	4	24:33	5:34
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	-1	0	21:11	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	1	1	1	-2	0	20:51	2:43
A. Pelech	D	0	0	3	-1	0	19:45	0:17
M. Kessel	D	1	0	0	0	0	14:00	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	2	0	3	0	10	12:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	23	20	3	.870	59:26	Loss
S. Varlamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl10:21C. McDavid11:41V. Podkolzin11:58

Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins11:19C. Dach12:35K. Kapanen8:34

Line 3M. Joseph11:22J. Dickinson10:16A. Formenton11:38

Line 4T. Frederic7:22O. Michaels10:49

Pair 1C. Murphy14:52R. Shea15:23

Pair 2M. Ekholm13:27E. Bouchard12:44

Pair 3T. Emberson10:37S. Mukhamadullin12:27

NYI

Line 1K. Palmieri11:15B. Horvat11:36S. Holmstrom10:38

Line 2B. Schenn12:23V. Eklund11:39C. Cizikas11:01

Line 3O. Palat10:29A. Duclair11:22J. Pageau8:24

Line 4K. MacLean8:58M. Chaffee9:35

Pair 1L. Stanley15:26T. DeAngelo16:37

Pair 2A. Pelech11:19M. Schaefer16:53

Pair 3S. Mayfield8:23M. Kessel11:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	+160	-175	3	Under
NYI B. Horvat	2.5	-120	+120	3	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	-115	-104	3	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	+142	-180	4	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.5	-154	+120	2	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	2.5	-140	+122	2	Under
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	+115	-150	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	-105	-105	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	1.5	+110	-140	2	Over
NYI E. Heineman	1.5	-120	+105	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	1.5	-122	-105	2	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	1.5	+115	-150	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.5	-176	+135	2	Over
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	-115	-105	3	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	-105	-125	1	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	-154	+125	2	Over

3 of 31 overs hit (10%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+475	-800	0	Under
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+170	-210	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+320	-500	0	Under
NYI C. Cizikas	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+650	-700	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+370	-475	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+340	-450	0	Under
EDM I. Howard	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
EDM J. Dickinson	0.5	+850	-1400	1	Over
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+400	-500	0	Under
NYI K. MacLean	0.5	+1200	–	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+260	-320	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+115	-150	0	Under
NYI M. Chaffee	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+1200	-1400	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+290	-350	2	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+1300	-1600	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+265	-350	0	Under
NYI S. Mayfield	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+725	-1400	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+235	-285	1	Over

4 of 14 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+150	-165	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+170	-210	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-210	+165	1	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-160	+120	1	Over
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+280	-525	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+290	-295	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+210	-245	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-150	+125	2	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-106	-115	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+150	-185	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+250	-340	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+164	-185	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under

5 of 14 overs hit (36%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	+105	-120	1	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	1.5	+124	-145	2	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	-160	+130	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+105	-111	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-225	+180	1	Over
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+140	-170	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-160	+135	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	-120	+115	2	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	-125	+100	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+100	-105	1	Over

3 of 15 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+275	-350	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+110	-140	1	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+195	-215	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+200	-275	1	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
EDM T. Jarry	24.5	-110	-105	18	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.1, NYI 3.1	EDM 4, NYI 0
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	EDM 26.7, NYI 28.0	EDM 24, NYI 18
Win chance	NYI 51%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.3	3	0.93	0	37%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	3	1.43	1	36%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	3.1	2	0.89	0	21%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	2	1.27	2	40%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	3	1.04	1	17%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	4	0.71	0	28%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	2.0	2	0.55	1	22%	1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	2	0.73	2	24%	2
NYI E. Heineman	1.9	0	0.40	0	21%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.8	2	0.45	1	19%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.7	3	0.72	0	28%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.7	0	0.64	0	23%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.7	1	0.43	0	8%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	0	0.32	0	6%	0
EDM A. Formenton	1.5	1	0.30	0	14%	0
NYI V. Eklund	1.4	1	0.40	0	16%	0
EDM C. Dach	1.4	2	0.30	0	12%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.3	0	0.45	0	20%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.3	0	0.41	1	8%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.50	0	18%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.2	0	0.36	0	16%	0
NYI L. Stanley	1.1	0	0.31	0	6%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.1	2	0.24	0	6%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.1	0	0.18	0	7%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
EDM R. Shea	1.0	1	0.41	0	7%	0
EDM M. Joseph	0.9	1	0.27	1	10%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	0.9	1	0.25	1	11%	1
EDM T. Frederic	0.9	1	0.16	0	9%	0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
EDM O. Michaels	0.8	1	0.23	0	10%	0
NYI M. Chaffee	0.8	1	0.17	0	10%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	0	0.15	0	7%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.7	2	0.15	0	3%	0
NYI M. Kessel	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.