Game Recap: EDM 3, NYR 1, March 16, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM3

FinalSun, Mar 16, 2025Every game that night

NYR1

EDM beat NYR 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.06 expected goals to 3.69. R. Nugent-Hopkins led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). S. Skinner stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	0	2	3
NYR	0	1	0	1

1st 19:17EDMC. PerryPP0.03 xG
2nd 5:00NYRW. Cuylle0.75 xG
3rd 6:09EDMV. Arvidsson0.01 xG
3rd 16:35EDMC. McDavid0.12 xG

Team Stats

EDMNYR

23Shots on goal22

2.06Expected goals3.69

53Shot attempts58

185v5 shots on goal16

1/4Power play0/3

17Hits18

19Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways15

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.06 xGNYR 3.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM23 on goal, 3 scored

NYR22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	3	3	0	0	1	+2	2	19:06	4:43
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	20:48	4:51
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	20:42	4:35
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	16:08	4:33
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	14:44	1:37
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:46	1:30
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:00	0:04
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:58	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:00	0:05
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	5	3	+1	2	11:59	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	11:45	1:56
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	7:36	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	20:32	0:04
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	23:34	4:30
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	+1	0	23:27	1:49
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	1	6	0	0	22:40	1:39
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:24	0:04
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	22:05	4:15
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	0	5	1	0	0	21:09	1:45
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	16:39	1:36
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	22:57	4:23
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	4	21:45	4:16
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:14	4:23
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:31	1:44
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:27	1:37
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	13:17	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	7:19	0:00
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:22	0:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	6:00	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	24:26	4:14
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	21:06	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:05	0:01
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	16:46	1:46
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	15:12	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	23	20	3	.870	57:09	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.3, NYR 3.0	EDM 3, NYR 1
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	EDM 31.2, NYR 27.4	EDM 23, NYR 22
Win chance	EDM 55%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.2	1	1.60	1	39%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.2	2	1.39	1	44%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	4	1.04	1	31%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	1	0.81	0	14%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.4	3	0.40	0	9%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	0	0.73	1	25%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	4	0.81	0	26%	0
EDM J. Walman	2.1	1	0.43	0	11%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.1	4	0.49	1	18%	1
NYR C. Kreider	2.1	1	0.55	0	30%	0
NYR J. Miller	1.9	2	0.90	0	26%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	0	0.69	3	21%	0
EDM J. Skinner	1.8	1	0.44	0	20%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	1	0.52	0	21%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	2	0.43	1	19%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	0	0.31	1	6%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.4	0	0.28	0	12%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.4	1	0.66	0	11%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.3	2	0.34	1	17%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.3	1	0.31	0	10%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	1	0.27	0	11%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	2	0.27	0	11%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.2	0	0.32	0	9%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	1	0.28	0	12%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	0	0.23	0	7%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.1	3	0.36	0	17%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.1	0	0.26	0	5%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
EDM M. Jones	0.9	1	0.19	0	8%	0
NYR B. Othmann	0.9	2	0.10	0	7%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.9	1	0.21	0	3%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.8	1	0.18	0	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	1	0.17	0	2%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.25	0	9%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.7	1	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.