Game Recap: EDM 2, NYR 0, October 14, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM2

FinalTue, Oct 14, 2025Every game that night

NYR0

EDM beat NYR 2-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.68 expected goals to 3.83. NYR outshot EDM 30 to 22. S. Skinner stopped 30 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	1	1	2
NYR	0	0	0	0

2nd 10:22EDMT. Frederic0.21 xG
3rd 18:52EDMA. HenriqueEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

EDMNYR

22Shots on goal30

2.68Expected goals3.83

46Shot attempts73

215v5 shots on goal20

0/0Power play0/3

12Hits18

23Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes0

18Giveaways13

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.68 xGNYR 3.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM22 on goal, 2 scored

NYR29 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:36	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	17:36	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	16:12	0:00
T. Frederic	C	1	0	1	2	3	3	+1	0	12:54	0:00
A. Henrique	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	11:48	0:00
L. Draisaitl	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	20:17	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:40	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	0	13:16	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:10	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:43	0:00
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10:42	0:00
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	7:30	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	23:43	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	+1	0	22:08	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	+1	0	20:46	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	2	20:23	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	17:40	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	15:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	30	30	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	5	0	0	-1	22:48	5:25
J. Miller	C	2	1	0	-1	22:20	5:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	3	3	2	-1	21:25	4:59
M. Zibanejad	C	3	0	1	-1	20:48	4:58
C. Sheary	LW	2	0	0	0	18:13	0:50
W. Cuylle	LW	2	1	0	-1	17:19	0:45
S. Carrick	C	3	0	0	-1	14:40	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	3	0	-1	13:47	0:50
A. Edstrom	C	2	5	0	-1	13:31	0:00
N. Laba	C	1	0	1	0	7:53	0:24
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	7:38	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	1	0	7:02	0:00
A. Fox	D	4	0	0	-1	23:56	5:03
V. Gavrikov	D	1	0	2	0	21:23	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	3	1	0	20:32	0:06
M. Robertson	D	0	1	0	0	18:02	0:00
B. Schneider	D	2	1	3	-1	16:44	0:45
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	-1	12:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	21	20	1	.952	59:07	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid18:28A. Mangiapane14:40L. Draisaitl19:54

Line 2K. Kapanen16:06V. Podkolzin13:16T. Frederic12:54

Line 3R. Nugent-Hopkins13:40J. Roslovic13:10M. Savoie10:07

Line 4A. Henrique9:16I. Howard7:30D. Tomasek10:42

Pair 1M. Ekholm16:50E. Bouchard19:15

Pair 2D. Nurse20:55T. Stecher15:32

Pair 3B. Kulak18:32T. Emberson15:43

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin16:30A. Lafrenière15:33M. Zibanejad14:57

Line 2C. Sheary17:23W. Cuylle15:41J. Miller16:27

Line 3S. Carrick14:40A. Edstrom13:31M. Rempe12:57

Line 4J. Brodzinski7:02N. Laba7:29T. Raddysh7:38

Pair 1V. Gavrikov21:23A. Fox18:00

Pair 2W. Borgen20:26M. Robertson18:02

Pair 3B. Schneider15:59U. Vaakanainen12:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, NYR 3.1	EDM 2, NYR 0
Total goals	6.3	2
Shots on goal	EDM 30.7, NYR 27.4	EDM 22, NYR 30
Win chance	EDM 51%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.7	2	1.70	1	39%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.4	1	1.45	0	44%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	3.1	4	0.90	0	16%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	5	1.14	0	33%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	3	0.88	0	28%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.3	1	0.80	0	24%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	3	0.62	0	23%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	2	1.01	0	29%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	2	0.48	0	20%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	1	0.33	0	7%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.8	4	0.78	0	15%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.7	3	0.39	0	8%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.7	0	0.46	0	17%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.6	0	0.36	0	15%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.5	0	0.24	0	11%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.4	1	0.31	1	11%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	1	0.25	0	5%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	1	0.37	1	18%	1
EDM T. Frederic	1.3	2	0.30	1	14%	1
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	2	0.35	0	14%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.3	3	0.28	0	11%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.2	1	0.29	0	6%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.2	0	0.25	0	10%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.1	0	0.32	1	15%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	0	0.27	0	10%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	2	0.25	0	7%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NYR M. Rempe	1.0	0	0.26	0	12%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	2	0.23	0	11%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	0	0.10	0	3%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	1	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.