Game Recap: EDM 4, NYR 1, November 1, 2026

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Game Recap

EDM4

FinalSun, Nov 1, 2026Every game that night

NYR1

EDM beat NYR 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.52 expected goals to 2.42. E. Bouchard led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. McDavid had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. M. Tomkins stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	2	1	1	4
NYR	0	1	0	1

1st 0:50EDMC. McDavid0.17 xG
1st 6:19EDMC. Dach0.12 xG
2nd 9:49EDME. BouchardPP0.06 xG
2nd 13:22NYRP. Dorofeyev0.44 xG
3rd 19:20EDMC. DachEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

EDMNYR

25Shots on goal28

3.52Expected goals2.42

50Shot attempts58

205v5 shots on goal23

1/4Power play0/2

19Hits23

15Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways12

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.52 xGNYR 2.42 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM25 on goal, 4 scored

NYR28 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	1	2	6	0	0	+2	0	23:22	4:33
L. Draisaitl	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	+2	0	20:08	4:43
C. Dach	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	+1	0	14:53	0:28
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	2	21:31	4:41
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:13	4:38
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:15	0:23
A. Formenton	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:33	0:01
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	12:04	0:01
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:55	0:01
O. Michaels	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:11	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:22	0:26
F. Hallander	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:38	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	2	3	3	0	1	+2	0	25:42	4:47
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	21:08	0:25
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+1	0	21:57	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	19:48	0:18
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:26	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Tomkins	28	27	1	.964	59:13	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	-1	0	20:08	2:35
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	17:35	2:43
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	20:12	1:50
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	18:09	1:28
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	4	4	0	-1	0	17:48	2:38
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	2	17:24	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	4	16:28	0:41
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:44	0:48
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:09	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	11:44	0:46
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:37	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:33	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:02	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	23:44	2:34
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:34	0:51
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	20:06	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	3	1	5	-1	0	19:39	0:06
A. Smits	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	15:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Garand	24	21	3	.875	57:50	Loss
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid15:34V. Podkolzin14:00L. Draisaitl13:14

Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins13:58K. Kapanen14:38C. Dach13:30

Line 3M. Joseph10:42A. Formenton10:46J. Dickinson9:58

Line 4T. Frederic8:56O. Michaels9:34F. Hallander8:38

Pair 1M. Ekholm18:21E. Bouchard18:51

Pair 2C. Murphy16:34R. Shea16:40

Pair 3T. Emberson12:41S. Mukhamadullin13:15

NYR

Line 1J. Miller15:03T. Kartye13:43G. Perreault14:35

Line 2M. Zibanejad13:20A. Lafrenière13:00P. Dorofeyev12:42

Line 3W. Cuylle13:53N. Laba10:52O. Bjorkstrand12:56

Line 4T. Raddysh7:37E. Tolvanen9:20L. Glendening7:04

Pair 1M. Pettersson16:55B. Schneider16:35

Pair 2V. Gavrikov16:21A. Fox15:57

Pair 3S. Morrow14:48A. Smits15:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 16 overs hit (63%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.5	+140	-164	4	Over
EDM C. McDavid	2.5	-135	+115	6	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	-113	-115	3	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.5	-160	+135	3	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	+125	-144	5	Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.5	-148	+115	1	Under
NYR A. Fox	1.5	-105	-110	2	Over
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	+100	-120	2	Over
NYR J. Miller	1.5	-150	+125	2	Over
EDM K. Kapanen	1.5	-105	-110	2	Over
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	+110	-135	1	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.5	-160	+130	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	1.5	+125	-160	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	+102	–	3	Over
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	-140	+115	1	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	-130	+115	0	Under

4 of 30 overs hit (13%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+525	-700	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+1400	-2500	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+700	-800	2	Over
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+131	-165	1	Over
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+340	-600	1	Over
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
EDM J. Dickinson	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+225	-290	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+425	-750	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+110	-150	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+1900	-2500	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+750	-900	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+185	-240	1	Over
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+280	-420	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+450	-600	0	Under
NYR T. Raddysh	0.5	+1100	-1200	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+320	-390	0	Under

5 of 17 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-135	+125	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+168	-185	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-200	+160	1	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-120	+100	2	Over
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+265	-325	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+114	-135	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+295	-350	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-120	+110	2	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+114	-135	1	Over
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+280	-375	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+155	-190	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+145	-170	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+255	-360	1	Over
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+300	-340	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+265	-300	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+255	-295	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+330	-450	0	Under

6 of 17 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	+105	-125	2	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	1.5	+146	-155	2	Over
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-175	+160	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	-155	+125	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-180	+150	3	Over
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+135	-150	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	-175	+145	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+160	-180	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-200	+165	1	Over
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	-160	+130	1	Over
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	-120	+105	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+225	-275	1	Over
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+195	-220	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+105	-120	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+140	-170	0	Under

3 of 12 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+195	-225	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+130	-130	1	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+195	-260	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+165	-185	1	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+210	-295	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYR D. Garand	22.5	-120	-102	21	Under
EDM M. Tomkins	22.5	-122	-108	27	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
NYR A. Fox	1.5	+100	-140	2	Over
EDM C. Murphy	1.5	-170	+120	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, NYR 3.3	EDM 4, NYR 1
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	EDM 26.9, NYR 25.5	EDM 25, NYR 28
Win chance	NYR 52%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	6	1.49	2	36%	1
NYR P. Dorofeyev	3.0	1	0.77	1	35%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.7	3	1.30	2	39%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	3	0.98	3	17%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	5	0.98	1	32%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.2	4	0.82	0	30%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	0	0.52	0	23%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	2	0.96	0	30%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	0	0.76	0	24%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.9	1	0.54	0	21%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.8	2	0.50	0	20%	0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	1	0.46	0	19%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.7	2	0.52	0	21%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.5	2	0.88	0	13%	0
EDM A. Formenton	1.4	3	0.31	0	14%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.4	0	0.52	0	19%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.4	1	0.41	0	8%	0
EDM C. Dach	1.4	4	0.30	2	12%	2
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	3	0.35	0	8%	0
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.2	2	0.31	0	14%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	3	0.25	0	5%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.2	0	0.23	0	6%	0
EDM F. Hallander	1.0	1	0.22	0	8%	0
EDM R. Shea	1.0	0	0.39	1	8%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	0	0.36	0	14%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.0	3	0.24	1	4%	0
EDM M. Joseph	0.9	0	0.30	0	10%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	0.9	0	0.26	0	11%	0
EDM T. Frederic	0.9	1	0.17	0	9%	0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
EDM O. Michaels	0.8	0	0.24	0	11%	0
NYR L. Glendening	0.8	0	0.16	0	9%	0
NYR M. Pettersson	0.8	0	0.29	0	5%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.7	0	0.20	0	8%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	0	0.12	0	2%	0
NYR A. Smits	0.5	0	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.