Game Recap: EDM 4, SEA 2, January 4, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM4

FinalSat, Jan 4, 2025Every game that night

SEA2

EDM beat SEA 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.89 expected goals to 1.48. EDM outshot SEA 32 to 18. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Janmark had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. C. Pickard stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	2	1	1	4
SEA	0	1	1	2

1st 0:57EDMV. Podkolzin0.11 xG
1st 5:18EDMJ. Skinner0.18 xG
2nd 11:52EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.13 xG
2nd 15:56SEAC. Stephenson0.12 xG
3rd 7:27SEAJ. Schwartz0.14 xG
3rd 18:02EDML. DraisaitlEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

EDMSEA

32Shots on goal18

4.89Expected goals1.48

70Shot attempts48

255v5 shots on goal17

0/1Power play0/2

7Hits23

21Blocked shots19

4Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways15

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 4.89 xGSEA 1.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM32 on goal, 4 scored

SEA18 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	18:06	1:24
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	0	12:30	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	19:58	1:24
C. Brown	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:24	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	11:52	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	9:22	0:36
K. Kapanen	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	8:51	0:36
D. Ryan	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	7:57	0:00
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	+1	2	22:10	1:24
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	16:22	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:25	0:36
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:08	1:24
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	2	21:01	1:24
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	20:40	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	25:00	0:36
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	0	24:13	0:36
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:53	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	18	16	2	.889	59:53	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	21:52	1:55
J. Schwartz	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	16:28	1:59
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:28	1:58
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:06	2:05
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:07	2:01
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	16:49	1:58
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:10	2:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	14:30	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	14:27	2:03
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	13:40	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	2	11:16	0:00
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:51	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	21:28	2:05
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	29:40	1:55
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	20:43	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	18:31	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	13:36	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	12:03	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	31	28	3	.903	58:15	Loss
A. Stezka	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, SEA 3.0	EDM 4, SEA 2
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	EDM 28.9, SEA 26.8	EDM 32, SEA 18
Win chance	EDM 54%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	2.8	6	1.51	0	36%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.6	2	0.73	0	34%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.5	4	1.25	2	40%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.5	1	0.76	0	32%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.3	1	0.58	0	16%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.3	2	0.74	1	15%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.2	2	0.54	2	19%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	0	0.36	0	10%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.1	1	0.57	1	24%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	2	0.42	0	11%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.0	1	0.62	0	23%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.7	2	0.70	1	21%	1
SEA V. Dunn	1.7	2	0.67	1	14%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.6	2	0.54	0	20%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.5	1	0.41	1	18%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.5	1	0.48	0	17%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	2	0.40	0	17%	0
EDM J. Skinner	1.5	2	0.39	1	17%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.5	0	0.27	1	7%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.3	0	0.34	0	16%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	2	0.28	1	11%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	1	0.38	0	17%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	0	0.22	0	6%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	1	0.67	1	20%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.1	1	0.32	1	10%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	0	0.48	0	20%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	1	0.28	1	11%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	3	0.22	0	12%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.9	0	0.35	0	6%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	1	0.19	0	5%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.7	0	0.16	0	3%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.7	1	0.12	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	4	0.28	0	9%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.6	0	0.15	1	7%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.6	1	0.11	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.