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Game Recap
EDM1
SEA6
SEA beat EDM 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.68 expected goals to 2.96. J. Schwartz led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Schwartz had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Daccord stopped 36 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| SEA | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
- 2nd 1:18SEAJ. SchwartzPP0.24 xG
- 2nd 3:24SEAJ. Schwartz0.05 xG
- 2nd 10:50SEAJ. Nyman0.08 xG
- 2nd 11:06SEAM. Beniers0.53 xG
- 2nd 12:41SEAA. Burakovsky0.19 xG
- 3rd 4:59EDMZ. Hyman0.15 xG
- 3rd 8:53SEAJ. McCann0.39 xG
Team Stats
EDMSEA
37Shots on goal37
2.96Expected goals4.68
71Shot attempts64
295v5 shots on goal28
0/4Power play1/4
26Hits15
5Blocked shots17
8Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways21
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.96 xGSEA 4.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Hyman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:33 | 4:07 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 2:03 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:56 | 4:03 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 4:03 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:30 | 0:09 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 1:17 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:03 | 4:03 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:53 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:07 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 1:57 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:39 | 2:10 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:49 | 2:15 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:05 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:39 | 3:33 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:25 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 29 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 40:00 | Loss |
| O. Rodrigue | 8 | 7 | 1 | .875 | 20:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:12 | 3:14 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | 3:33 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:59 | 3:15 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:18 | 1:03 |
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:34 | 1:07 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:38 | 1:03 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:16 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:45 | 3:29 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:48 | 1:19 |
| J. Hayden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:19 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:17 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:36 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:15 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 18:33 | 3:23 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:15 | 1:39 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 | 0:08 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 37 | 36 | 1 | .973 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.5, SEA 3.3 | EDM 1, SEA 6 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 30.4, SEA 28.5 | EDM 37, SEA 37 |
| Win chance | EDM 52% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.6 | 4 | 0.69 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.4 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.3 | 4 | 0.72 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.2 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.1 | 5 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.1 | 7 | 0.56 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 4 | 0.76 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.8 | 5 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.8 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.5 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.4 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM J. Klingberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 0.9 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.8 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.