Game Recap: EDM 2, SEA 3, October 25, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

EDM2

FinalSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

SEA3

SEA beat EDM 3-2, with the chances close: 2.37 expected goals to 2.49. EDM outshot SEA 33 to 23. J. Eberle led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Daccord stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	1	1	2
SEA	1	1	1	3

1st 1:23SEAJ. Eberle0.15 xG
2nd 6:35SEAT. Kartye0.12 xG
2nd 15:39EDME. BouchardPP0.09 xG
3rd 12:11SEAJ. Eberle0.13 xG
3rd 14:35EDMD. Nurse0.05 xG

Team Stats

EDMSEA

33Shots on goal23

2.49Expected goals2.37

71Shot attempts49

305v5 shots on goal18

1/2Power play0/3

15Hits10

13Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways20

7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.49 xGSEA 2.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM33 on goal, 2 scored

SEA23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	2	2	5	0	0	+1	0	21:59	1:32
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	16:45	1:19
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	24:43	1:19
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	16:33	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	16:11	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	14:43	0:08
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	12:40	0:00
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	12:37	1:24
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	11:54	0:11
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	10:46	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	9:20	0:02
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:24	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	-3	2	21:57	1:19
D. Nurse	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	21:10	0:03
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	-2	0	19:27	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:51	0:01
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:54	0:10
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:45	0:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	23	20	3	.870	58:21	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eberle	RW	2	0	2	3	1	0	+2	0	21:19	2:12
M. Beniers	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	2	19:58	2:30
T. Kartye	LW	1	0	1	2	1	3	+1	0	11:53	0:08
R. Winterton	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	11:47	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	11:00	0:00
B. Meyers	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	0	8:41	0:10
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	20:22	2:32
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	18:40	1:30
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:28	1:37
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:32	1:29
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	13:33	1:51
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:19	2:36
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	26:33	2:35
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+1	0	23:39	1:49
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	20:37	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:44	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:11	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	12:25	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	33	31	2	.939	60:00	Win
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1A. Mangiapane13:12C. McDavid19:40I. Howard10:46

Line 2A. Henrique13:47R. Nugent-Hopkins11:24J. Roslovic16:33

Line 3V. Podkolzin12:34L. Draisaitl16:28M. Savoie10:12

Line 4D. Tomasek10:25N. Philp7:48T. Frederic9:18

Pair 1D. Nurse18:31J. Walman18:47

Pair 2M. Ekholm17:38E. Bouchard17:37

Pair 3T. Emberson13:45B. Kulak15:40

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle16:46M. Beniers16:54B. Catton11:00

Line 2C. Stephenson14:26M. Marchment13:46E. Tolvanen10:59

Line 3J. Nyman10:43S. Wright12:11J. Schwartz15:01

Line 4R. Winterton11:15T. Kartye10:54B. Meyers8:21

Pair 1A. Larsson19:58V. Dunn21:31

Pair 2B. Montour19:26R. Lindgren16:48

Pair 3J. Oleksiak12:16J. Mahura11:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.3, SEA 3.0	EDM 2, SEA 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	EDM 29.5, SEA 26.3	EDM 33, SEA 23
Win chance	EDM 55%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.2	0	1.64	0	38%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	5	1.42	2	45%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	3	0.89	1	17%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.3	3	0.47	0	15%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.1	1	0.55	0	23%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	3	0.69	2	23%	2
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	2	0.80	1	24%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	3	0.37	1	8%	1
SEA M. Marchment	1.9	2	0.58	0	22%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	3	0.60	0	14%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.9	1	0.41	0	10%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	2	0.58	2	23%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	1	0.42	1	9%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	1	0.46	0	21%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.6	3	0.47	0	17%	0
EDM D. Tomasek	1.6	4	0.46	0	16%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.3	2	0.22	0	10%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.3	0	0.34	0	16%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	2	0.54	0	21%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.30	0	8%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	0	0.72	0	21%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.2	1	0.12	1	8%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	0	0.26	0	5%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.2	0	0.40	0	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	2	0.34	0	12%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	3	0.36	0	17%	0
EDM N. Philp	1.2	1	0.29	0	12%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	1	0.27	0	14%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	2	0.25	1	12%	1
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	0	0.19	0	3%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.19	0	5%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	1	0.19	0	3%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.7	0	0.23	0	4%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.6	0	0.12	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.