Game Recap: EDM 4, SEA 0, November 29, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM4

FinalSat, Nov 29, 2025Every game that night

SEA0

EDM beat SEA 4-0, with the chances close: 2.35 expected goals to 2.63. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Skinner stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	2	1	4
SEA	0	0	0	0

1st 11:29EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.13 xG
2nd 12:30EDML. Draisaitl0.11 xG
2nd 18:51EDMZ. HymanPP0.11 xG
3rd 6:25EDMC. McDavid0.03 xG

Team Stats

EDMSEA

25Shots on goal26

2.35Expected goals2.63

50Shot attempts61

225v5 shots on goal14

2/2Power play0/6

19Hits18

16Blocked shots11

30Penalty minutes24

14Giveaways13

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.35 xGSEA 2.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM23 on goal, 4 scored

SEA26 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	2	21:15	1:42
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	17:41	1:42
C. McDavid	C	1	1	2	1	1	2	+1	2	17:39	1:42
Z. Hyman	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	15:27	1:42
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:20	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:27	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	14:44	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:29	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:15	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:04	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:25	0:00
C. Clattenburg	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	7	6:38	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	23:38	1:42
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	22:00	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	17:59	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	10	19:29	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+1	4	19:25	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	5	16:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	26	26	0	1.000	59:40	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	4	0	1	-1	0	19:17	4:35
J. Eberle	RW	3	2	0	0	0	18:40	5:41
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	0	12	17:23	4:20
B. Catton	C	2	0	1	-1	0	17:03	3:56
K. Kakko	RW	1	0	0	-1	0	16:35	3:10
C. Stephenson	C	2	0	0	0	0	16:24	5:56
J. McCann	LW	4	4	1	0	0	15:59	5:46
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	2	0	0	0	14:48	2:15
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	14:11	2:51
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	-1	5	12:51	0:15
R. Winterton	C	1	3	1	-1	0	12:33	0:12
T. Kartye	LW	1	2	0	-1	5	11:02	0:09
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	0	0	22:52	5:46
B. Montour	D	4	1	1	-2	0	21:36	5:38
R. Evans	D	0	0	2	0	0	18:39	0:26
R. Lindgren	D	1	1	1	-2	0	17:54	0:14
A. Larsson	D	0	0	1	0	2	15:48	0:05
J. Oleksiak	D	1	3	1	0	0	14:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	25	21	4	.840	60:00	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid15:37Z. Hyman13:19M. Savoie9:43

Line 2L. Draisaitl19:04V. Podkolzin12:56A. Mangiapane13:20

Line 3A. Henrique12:42M. Janmark11:31R. Nugent-Hopkins11:22

Line 4T. Frederic9:25C. Lazar7:07C. Clattenburg6:38

Pair 1B. Kulak17:05T. Emberson15:18

Pair 2M. Ekholm16:55E. Bouchard16:54

Pair 3D. Nurse16:12A. Regula13:27

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle12:59M. Beniers14:42M. Marchment13:03

Line 2T. Kartye9:47R. Winterton11:45F. Gaudreau11:27

Line 3K. Kakko13:05S. Wright11:00E. Tolvanen12:33

Line 4J. McCann10:13C. Stephenson9:55

Pair 1J. Oleksiak14:17R. Evans17:38

Pair 2A. Larsson14:07V. Dunn16:46

Pair 3B. Montour15:58R. Lindgren16:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.1, SEA 3.0	EDM 4, SEA 0
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	EDM 28.1, SEA 26.0	EDM 25, SEA 26
Win chance	EDM 52%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	2.8	1	1.43	2	35%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	0	0.86	1	16%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	3	1.27	2	42%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.6	2	0.71	2	33%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.5	4	0.84	0	30%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	3	0.76	0	26%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.2	4	0.51	0	15%	0
SEA M. Marchment	2.0	1	0.69	0	25%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	1	0.35	0	9%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	1	0.43	1	9%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	0	0.64	0	14%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	4	0.68	0	24%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	2	0.72	2	22%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	1	0.50	0	21%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.5	2	0.42	0	19%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	3	0.37	0	14%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.4	1	0.30	0	13%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	0	0.54	0	20%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	2	0.73	0	21%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	0	0.37	0	16%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.1	0	0.29	0	7%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.1	1	0.38	0	15%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.1	3	0.19	0	4%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.0	1	0.31	1	15%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	1	0.21	0	12%	0
SEA B. Catton	0.9	2	0.34	0	10%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.9	1	0.27	0	13%	0
SEA R. Winterton	0.9	1	0.16	0	8%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	1	0.19	1	3%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.8	2	0.07	0	4%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.7	1	0.24	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	1	0.22	0	8%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.7	1	0.18	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	0	0.28	0	5%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	0	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.